As diplomatic gaffes go, it will be hard to surpass Hillary Clinton presenting Sergei Lavrov, the Russian foreign minister, with a “Re-set” button. This was meant to signify a fresh start in US-Russian relations. But unfortunately the Russian words next to the button actually translated as “Self-Destruct” - which more or less confirms the most paranoid Russian views of what the Americans have in mind for them.

Still - translation problems aside - America’s intent is clear. The Obama administration wants a new and better relationship with Russia. They want Russian help on all sorts of tricky issues, in particular Iran. If at all possible, the Americans want to cool down old arguments over issues like missile defence - and Georgia.

Unfortunately, it may not be possible. A new crisis over Georgia is looming, and could erupt quite soon. On April 9th, large-scale anti-government demonstrations are scheduled to take place in Georgia. The opposition are demanding that President Mikheil Saakashvili resign. That would suit the Russians extremely well - since they loathe Saakashvili. The Russian government is also convinced that there was an American-hand behind the Rose and Orange revolutions in Georgia and Ukraine. They will doubtless be giving support - and perhaps more - to the anti-Saakashvili opposition in Georgia in a couple of weeks time. Even without outside assistance, the demonstrations could easily turn violent - on both sides.

Turmoil in Georgia and the possible downfall of Saakashvili would present the Obama administration with an acute dilemma. Saakashvili still has many friends in Washington - and there would be lots of pressure to come to his support, particularly if it was felt that he was falling victim to a Russian-engineered coup. But a new crisis over Georgia would mean that the thaw in US-Russian relations had lasted little more than a few weeks.

In May of this year a close aide to President Mikheil Saakashvili of Georgia visited me in London. He complained about Russian provocation: the next time a Russian military plane violated Georgian airspace, he said, the Georgians would shoot it down. He added that the Georgian government had informed the US of its intentions and had been given the go-ahead.

I recorded the conversation at the time on my blog (“War over Georgia”, May 16) and wrote: “I think that shooting down a Russian plane would be the stupidest thing they could possibly do. It would give Russia exactly the excuse it needed to launch military operations against Georgia.”

In recalling this conversation now, I do not mean to endorse the accusation of Vladimir Putin, the Russian prime minister, that the war in Georgia was a US-inspired provocation. Who knows what further conversations took place between Tbilisi, Washington and Moscow in the subsequent three months before the Georgians moved in on the separatist enclave of South Ossetia? There is little doubt that the Russians were baiting the Georgians – and actively preparing for war.

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There are two things to say about the fighting in Georgia. First, the Georgians had every right to try and take control of South Ossetia - it is part of their country and there is no doubt that the Russian-backed separatists had been acting in a highly provocative fashion.

But second - the Georgians have made a terrible mistake. In a post on May 16th, I argued that Georgian threats to shoot down Russian planes buzzing their airspace would be self-defeating, giving Russia an “excuse to launch military operations against Georgia”. Attacking South Ossetia was an even worse error. By becoming (apparently), the first to shed blood the Georgians lost the moral high ground and gave Russia the causus belli it sought.

Continue reading "War in Georgia"