Shortly after the FT published its journalists’ “Predictions for 2008″ a colleague approached me and said: “I see you’re predicting instability in Pakistan. That’s sticking your neck out a bit, isn’t it?”

I am writing this column before the Pakistani election results have come in. But, having established a reputation for daring judgments, I am prepared to make a further prediction. Whatever happens in the parliamentary elections, there will be further instability.

In fact, as I discovered on a recent visit to the country, the real difficulty is identifying a political outcome that might actually stabilise Pakistan. Even western diplomats - who are more or less professionally obliged to look on the bright side - cannot disguise their anxiety. One describes the situation as “very bleak”.

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I am in Islamabad, which is perhaps not the ideal place from which to comment on Super Tuesday. But while we still have months and months to go before the Americans actually choose their president, the Pakistani elections are coming up fast - February 18th in fact.

There are three big questions surrounding the vote:

1) Will Musharraf rig the voting? 2) If the opposition win can they form a stable government? 3) Can any government improve the security situation - which means regaining control of the wilder bits of the country and stopping the suicide bombings which are becoming a regular feature of Pakistani life?

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Sometimes it can be fun to be the bearer of bad tidings. On Saturday night I was able to stroll over to a senior member of the British foreign policy establishment and tell him that a state of emergency had been declared in Pakistan. Lawyers, politicians and human rights activists were under arrest. The senior member looked suitably concerned, got out his BlackBerry, called up the news and began to read. “Oh dear,” he said.

Oh dear, indeed. It is a cliché of the international relations business that “Pakistan is the most dangerous country in the world”. This is a nation with nuclear weapons, al-Qaeda bases, large lawless areas bordering Afghanistan and a rising tide of domestic militancy and terrorism. The US and its allies have treated General Pervez Musharraf as a crucial partner in trying to deal with these problems. But the general’s latest move threatens to produce turmoil and strips away the facade of constitutionalism that made it easier for the west to support him. So the western powers have to ask whether the general is – as they say – now part of the problem, rather than part of the solution?

The remainder of this column can be read here; comments can be made below.

Well, I think the experiment in crowd-sourcing (otherwise known as picking the brains of readers of this blog) has been a great success. It would be invidious to pick out particular contributions. But I was struck by how interesting and rational most of the posts were - so unlike the forums in other newspapers. I mention no names. I think I’ll definitely repeat the experiment, after the summer break.

In the end I’ve decided to do the conspiracy theories column. In the course of the research I came across two particularly striking conspiracy websites. (There are zillions of them) The editor of Conspiracy Planet sent a rather aggressive letter to the editor, accusing me of being a "shill" for the establishment. Fortunately, he is based in Montana - so I doubt I’ll ever have to argue this one out in person. Then there is the Lobster site, which has long had a devoted following in Britain.

Meanwhile, out in the real world  - things still look bad in Pakistan, with a resurgence of violence at the Red Mosque.

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Lord Salisbury, a British prime minister of the imperial age, once remarked that a great deal of strategic confusion can be caused by "using maps with too small a scale". This warning should be remembered when comparing Turkey and Pakistan - two very different countries, thousands of miles apart.

But the fact remains that - viewed from Washington or London - Turkey and Pakistan do present similar problems. They are both pro-western, non-Arab, Muslim countries. They are both front-line states, bordering countries where the US and its allies are fighting a war. (Turkey borders Iraq and Pakistan borders Afghanistan, in case you had forgotten.) In both countries, the nightmare scenario for the west is a takeover by Muslim fundamentalists. And in both Turkey and Pakistan, the military has traditionally presented itself as the bulwark against extremism.

Turkey and Pakistan are also both going through periods of real political turmoil. But that is where the comparison stops. Viewed from the west events in Turkey - although cause for anxiety - look a great deal more promising than the goings-on in Pakistan.

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This morning I called upon a senior member of the Pakistani government in his rather splendid offices in Islamabad. You will be pleased to know that he seems unruffled by current events. Karachi, he informed me, has gone back to normal after Sunday’s killings. As for Monday’s murder of a senior Supreme Court official, this was – “A most unfortunate incident, but these things happen.”

Meanwhile in Peshawar, the police have discovered the severed limbs of the suicide bomber who blew up a hotel there earlier this week. He had thoughtfully taped a little note to his leg, which read – “Death to American spies.” This is a bit of a downer, since I’m planning to travel to Peshawar tomorrow morning in the company of some Americans. I hope none of them are spies.

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I seem to have arrived in Pakistan at a lively time. On Sunday more than 40 demonstrators were shot and killed at an anti-government rally in Karachi. On Monday there was a general strike and the mysterious murder of a senior official of the Supreme Court. Yesterday there was a suicide bombing in Peshawar and 25 people were killed. I wonder what will happen today?

The Pakistani opposition seem convinced that this is beginning of the end for President Musharraf. One of the people I called on yesterday was Avida Hussein, an ebullient woman who is a former ambassador to Washington and now a leading opponent of the president. She was caught up in the shootings in Karachi on Sunday and says – “I’ve been mucking around in politics for over 30 years and the first time I saw a human being shot dead in front of me was on Sunday in Karachi.”

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