Daily Archives: October 30, 2007

Richard Waters

Google_mobile It took Google’s shares 52 weeks to move from $400 to $500. It took another 46 weeks to get from $500 to $600.

The next hundred bucks? A shade over three weeks, by the look of things. The stock was less than a dime away from $700 at one point on Tuesday.

Sure, those $100 hurdles get easier to jump the bigger you get (the latest one "only" represents a 17 per cent rise.) However, this now officially ranks as Wall Street’s biggest bout of Google-phoria in a couple of years: the stock has climbed by 40 per cent in less than three months.

You can put this one down to a classic blend of hope and reality. The reality is that Google is pulling even further ahead of its rivals. Who would have predicted that a couple of years ago, when Microsoft and Yahoo set out in hot pursuit with their own search plans? The hope comes from Google’s new mobile strategy, which is expected to be unveiled within weeks.

A familiar pattern is evident here. Google’s core business just gets better and better, but Google’s promising new businesses remain just that – all promise. The entire mobile advertising market is worth barely $1bn a year. As with social networking, there are valid concerns about whether users will take to advertising in this medium, and in what form. This is best seen as a long-term bet. But when you have the twin-engine cash machine of AdWords and AdSense to get you through the short term, will anybody care?

Richard Waters

Citizendium Larry Sanger is still predicting big things for Citizendium, the expert-moderated alternative to the "open" encyclopedia Wikipedia that he launched a year ago (we wrote about the launch here, and the implications of the Citizendium v Wikipedia battle here.)

Given the scale of his ambition, the results so far are decidedly modest: 3,300 articles, growing at the rate of 14 a day, compared to more than 2m on the English-language version of Wikipedia. Still, Sanger, who was in at the beginning of Wikipedia, is unabashed, as his update today demonstrates:

At some point, possibly very soon, the Citizendium will grow explosively–say, quadruple the number of its active contributors, or even grow by an order of magnitude.  And it will experience that growth over the course of a month or two, and its growth will continue to accelerate from that higher rate.

Comments like that make it sound like Sanger is succumbing to wishful thinking in his efforts to hit back at old nemesis Jimmy Wales of Wikipedia. Still, he has a point in one regard. Projects like this are deeply viral, and many of the experts he wants to attract will only jump in once they feel a tipping point has been reached.

As Wikipedia’s extraordinary expansion continues, I for one hope Sanger gets the formula right. It’s way too early in the development of the internet to hand so much influence over what passes for human knowledge to a single, still largely experimental website like Wikipedia.

Richard Waters

Another day, another 3 per cent on Baidu’s share price. The Chinese search engine is now deemed to be worth more than $12bn, which is double what the stock market thought it was worth as recently as August. Not to be left behind, portals like Sohu and Sina are on a run of their own, with gains respectively of 160 and 130 per cent this year.

For Baidu, if you’re keeping score, that puts the company on a multiple of more than 30 times next year’s revenues, and 94 times 2008 earnings.

With nearly a year to go until the Beijing Olympics, what’s the chance that this bubble will keep inflating at least that long? No surprise that the Olympics were on the lips of a senior Sohu executive when the company reported earnings today, and are contributing to a general belief that this rally is bullet-proof.

The long-run potential for the companies that end up dominating the Chinese internet sector may indeed be huge, but the US internet bubble showed how hard it is for investors to discount that back to a realistic valuation for today’s nascent internet giants – why should this be any different?

Of course, it doesn’t hurt Baidu’s cause if its market share is being inflated in unusual ways (see this report on how internet users who try to visit Google end up on Baidu.) As Sergey Brin groused last week: "Obviously that makes it very hard to do business, when your customers are redirected to a competitor."

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Richard Waters, Chris Nuttall and April Dembosky in the FT's San Francisco bureau share their views - plus tech insights from Tim Bradshaw and Maija Palmer in London and Robin Kwong in Taipei.



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Contact the FT Tech Hub team: richard.waters@ft.com, chris.nuttall@ft.com, april.dembosky@ft.com, maija.palmer@ft.com, robin.kwong@ft.com and tim.bradshaw@ft.com.

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