Monthly Archives: October 2008

Richard Waters

ballotbox.jpgGet ready for wall-to-wall online coverage of US election day. Every butterfly ballot, frozen voting machine lever and hanging chad could get its 15 seconds of fame.

The aim is certainly an admirable one: to make democracy totally transparent.

Twitter will be running the Twitter Vote Report (in association with the techPresident blog.) A place for anyone to broadcast his or her voting experience, Twitter says it hopes to weed out “long lines, broken machines, and registered voters who can’t vote because their names aren’t showing up on the registration rolls.”

YouTube has come up with the Videoyourvote channel (in association with PBS) to do much the same.

The exhibitionism of the YouTube generation could well clash with American voting tradition, however. More than half of US states ban voters from publicly displaying their own marked ballots, and 17 states don’t allow any recording inside polling stations at all (this is a full listing, from the Citizen Media Law Project.) I wonder how many of those personal testaments will end up coming from inside a police cell.

Whatever else, this will certainly be the most observed election day of all time. If all that voter-generated content had been around eight years ago, maybe Al Gore would have made it to the White House after all.

Richard Waters

google-android.jpg I have to confess: Google’s mobile phone platform is getting off to a much better start than I had expected.

The generally favourable reviews of the first Android phone, the G1 made by HTC for T-Mobile, were notable (our own Paul Taylor found “many strengths offsetting a few weaknesses.”) They showed how well Google had done from a standing start in just a year and half – though my own brief exposure to the device left me cold. It arouses none of the instant emotional reaction you get from the iPhone.

Now comes news that Motorola is about to throw its lot in with Android, using the Google software for its consumer smartphones (it will continue to use Windows Mobile for business phones and its own software for low-end devices.) Given Motorola’s slumping market share it certainly makes sense to consolidate on three platforms.

The loser in this will be the LiMo Foundation, whose own Linux-based operating system has been used in eight Motorola devices. Morgan Gillis, LiMo’s executive director, wouldn’t confirm the loss of Motorola, but he did point out that most mobile companies have already narrowed their support to only one – or at most two – of the leading open-source mobile platforms: Symbian, the Open Handset Alliance (Android), and LiMo. Handsets made for NTT DoCoMo (by NEC and Panasonic) are the main remaining outlet for LiMo.

It’s too early to declare Android a winner, though. Google still has to persuade mobile phone companies that it is friend rather than foe. The T-Mobile device works best as a delivery mechanism for Google’s own services. How many operators are ready to throw their lot in with Google to that degree?

Paul Taylor

I am not a big video gamer, but one of the new features that will be introduced on November 19 by Microsoft’s Xbox team as part of a user interface redesign dubbed the ‘New Xbox Experience’ (NXE) could help bolster the consol’s claim to a place in the living room.

The software upgrade, which the Xbox team has been working on for the past nine months and which will be automatically downloaded like any other system update, will bring streaming Netflix movies to the Xbox 360 instantly transforming the device from ‘simply’ a games machine into a new distribution platform for the movies-by-mail pioneer.

That means Xbox Live members will have instant access to the Netflix catalogue of more that 12,000 movie and TV shows. Once selected, movies begin playing in about 30 seconds and Xbox Live members can browse and rate movies, fast-forward, pause and rewind using either an Xbox 360 controller or universal remote.

Other enhancements included in the NXE overhaul include a new and much more modern looking UI which replaces the rather tired looking blade interface, a cleaner, more intuitive Marketplace channel where users can buy games-related items and the ability to set up virtual parties involving up to eight participants who can play a game together or share content like photos.

I am much less enthusiastic about another new feature – the ability to create a personal avatar – but then I was never a big Second Life enthusiast either.

Richard Waters

ray-ozzie-announces-azure.jpg Microsoft’s Professional Developer Conference in Los Angeles (its first in three years) is classic Ray Ozzie. Historically, the software company has always trailed important technology developments far in advance of their availability – a tactic that has the benefit of securing mindshare among developers, but also opens it to the criticism of talking up “vapourware” in order to undermine competitors.

That is not Ozzie’s style. When I caught up with him for a few minutes this week, the Microsoft chief software architect said that there had been some pressure internally to talk about aspects of the company’s new “cloud platform” earlier, but that’s not the way he likes to do it. He wanted to wait until Microsoft had something concrete to demonstrate.

The result has been a deluge of announcements over the past two days, as Microsoft has shown off what amounts to a complete new software framework for the Web age. It starts with Windows Azure, the operating system for the cloud. On top of that are tools for creating Web-based applications and a range of new services that turn it into a full-fledged online platform for corporate IT developers. This is a framework that Ozzie sketched out in concept some time ago, but has now spelled out in great detail.

With so much to digest, I asked Ozzie what he thought was particularly significant about this week’s developments but which might have been lost in the broader announcements. He pointed to the simple mechanism Microsoft had put in place so that corporate IT managers could shift some of their users to the “cloud”:

The subtle connection is that in order to do that, there is one one-click thing that the enterprise IT does that takes all their enterprise users who are in Active Directory, which is our directory product, and it connects them to the cloud in that one button click. Once they do that, those same authenticated users are available to any ISV [third-party software developer] who puts their business app up in our platform.

So, in essence, what’s being created is a new — I’m looking for an analogy that’s a reasonable analogy. It’s a new marketplace potentially. Without this, every ISV who wanted to ship a service to an enterprise would have to require every enterprise user to create another logon ID - another logon ID times 100,000 users in the enterprise.

I mean, this is really the birth of broad-based viability of business apps… to be delivered to businesses online. It’s not just about a Salesforce.com. It’s not just about a Netsuite or a Microsoft who would deliver their one app. This basically says, look, the enterprise is going to manage a console, a portal. They’ll provision these users for these apps and these for these, and they’ll be able to deal with services in a way that they deal with software right now on their premises. And I think that’s actually a very big deal.

Others, from Salesforce.com to SAP, also have ambitions to become platform companies, supporting new software marketplaces like this. But if it can come up with easy answers to thorny problems like identity management for online services, Microsoft looks well-positioned retain its strong following among developers as it tries to move to the cloud.

Richard Waters

ford-explorer.jpgIf software programs were cars, then Windows Vista would be the Ford Explorer and Windows Mobile would be the Ford Focus.

Why? Because these are both fine vehicles with plenty to recommend them. But tastes and customers’ needs change, and no company wants to be caught with the wrong vehicle line-up or get passed by a competitor with  better styling.

This thought is prompted by the focus on “cloud computing” at Microsoft’s developer conference in Los Angeles, which just got underway (see note below, and this report of the morning’s proceedings.) As users turn more to internet-based services and rely less on applications running on client machines, they are already starting to adopt new devices with new capabilities. Microsoft, though the king of client software, is not currently well positioned to meet this new need.

Two of the hottest new consumer trends bear this out. One is the arrival of the iPhone and, this month, Google’s first Android phone. These touch-screen handsets have turned the smartphone market upside down.

So where is Microsoft? It was only a couple of years ago, with the release of Windows Mobile 6, that it finally came up with a version of the operating system that really worked well on handsets (the general perception is that it takes Microsoft three attempts to get something right: in this case it took a few more.) But Windows Mobile has been overtaken, first by Apple and now Google. Microsoft had several years’ headstart, yet it has fallen behind in important ways and recent reports suggest that the next version of Windows Mobile won’t now see the light of day till late next year.

Vista is a different story. This is the gas guzzler that works fine when things like computing resources and power are in abundance, but doesn’t do so well in a world of scarcity. Vista doesn’t power most of the new “netbooks”, or mini-notebooks, that have become the hot new thing in the PC world: many of these are using XP, which Microsoft had hoped to consign to the dustbin by now.

All is not lost – far from it. Cloud computing is still in its infancy and Microsoft has time to adapt. On Tuesday, the company has promised to shift the focus of its developer conference to the “front end” – the technologies that users will need to access services in the cloud. Windows 7 is on the horizon and Microsoft will soon be able to close the sad chapter that was Vista. But the lesson from Detroit is clear: having a massive market share offers little protection if you stop building what customers want.

Richard Waters

Can Microsoft possibly live up to the expectations it has built around it’s Professional Developer Conference, which starts here in Los Angeles today? As Microsoft-watcher Mary Jo Foley says, virtually any question put to an exec of the software company over the past year has been met with the response: “You’ll find out more at PDC.”

This is meant to be Ray Ozzie’s coming-out party. Three years after joining Microsoft, he needs to prove that he has a plan capable of shifting the company’s centre of gravity to the Web.

It won’t be easy. Microsoft has a habit of building up to big moments like this and then leaving its audience hungry for more, as Nick Carr put it to me the other day (Carr’s latest bookThe Big Switch, is the best read so far about the significance of the shift to “cloud” computing.)

Ozzie laid the groundwork for today’s event in this speech at Microsoft’s annual meeting with financial analysts last year. The picture he sketched out at that time was certainly ambitious. The Web-based computing platform he envisaged has a number of layers, starting with a base of massive datacenters which Microsoft, like Google, has been racing to build. On top of this rests what he called a “cloud infrastructure services layer” – the most basic layer of software that spreads the computing load across datacentres and servers, parcels out storage capacity and manages the network.

The next layer up he termed “Live platform services” – software that handles a range of services needed to support Web applications for consumers and small businesses. These services are things like identity management, a user’s ”social graph” of personal connections, and the Microsoft advertising platform, which third-party developers can use to make money from their applications.

On top of all of this reside the actual services for consumers and office workers. Some will come from Microsoft, but most will be created by the developers at whom this conference is aimed. And then there is the client computing platform, the PC and mobile software  used to access the new Web services.

What makes Ozzie’s job particularly hard is that Microsoft has a stake in every level of this new Web-based computing “stack,” so it has to tell a convincing story about each piece. Failure to present a convincing case would be costly. Microsoft badly needs to win mind-share with developers when it comes to the next big computing transition. Failure would mean losing the initiative to IBM or Google.

Chris Nuttall

Oprah’s favourite new gadgetKindle sales appear likely to get a significant boost on Friday, with talk-show megastar Oprah Winfrey apparently about to endorse Amazon’s digital book reader.

Amazon is featuring a trailer of  her Friday show on its site with Oprah talking about her new “favourite gadget” which is “life changing for me”. From a side-on view, the product she is talking about looks very like a Kindle.

In an email to subscribers, Amazon says its founder Jeff Bezos will be appearing on Oprah to talk to her about her new favourite gadget.

Talking to analysts on Amazon’s third-quarter conference call on Wednesday, he denied that digital books were having a cannibalistic effect on regular book sales:

“So far what we have seen with the Kindle book units is that they are additive to physical book units. So when somebody buys a Kindle and the period after, they buy 1.6 times as many Kindle books as they bought physical books prior to buying a Kindle, and they continue to buy the same number of physical books. So that’s what we have seen so far and it’s obviously a very positive outcome. We hope that continues.”

Mr Bezos said he did expect digital books to force down prices of physical ones in the long term but Amazon would hope to sell more units.

A new version of Kindle would not appear until next year at the earliest, the call was told, but manufacturing capacity had been ramped up for the existing one and Kindles were in stock and available for immediate shipment.

That’s good news for the retailer given the sell-out results of Ms Winfrey’s usual endorsements.

We all know that Google can count. The company based its IPO on a billion times the mathematical constant “e”, so I don’t doubt the arithmetic credentials at Mountain View.

So the launch of the Android market, the application store for the new G1 phone, indicates that the Android team needs to check their calculations.

The Android blog states:

There are already over 50 apps available in Android Market today. You can view a showcase of some of these apps—which include multimedia, location-based tools, barcode scanners, travel guides and games.

And at Android market? I counted 29 apps. So where are the missing 21 (at least)? This isn’t just a rounding error. Some of our apps are missing.

The rumour is that Google updated the market software close to launch, which meant many apps weren’t up to spec. In which case, the timing sucks.

Google has launched products a bit early before, without causing too much damage. But with a phone that isn’t as slick as the iPhone in a highly competitive area, launching the Android market with the cupboard a little bare isn’t the smartest move.

Richard Waters

It’s not all doom and gloom among Sequoia-backed start-ups.

LinkedIn, which raised $53m in June at an eye-catching $1bn valuation, is at it again. This time the social network for professionals has pulled in another $23m – and at the same valuation, despite the collapse in stock prices since then, according to CEO Dan Nye.

When I spoke to Nye earlier, he was far more interested in talking about his new investors than the money itself. This round comes from four backers: SAP, Goldman Sachs, McGraw Hill and Bessemer Venture Partners (Note: an earlier version of this post omitted to mention Bessemer.) Nye says these strategic investors are there to open up new uses for the LinkedIn network, advancing its ambition to become a social platform on which a wider range of online business life takes place.

You can imagine, for instance, LinkedIn being built in SAPs’ enterprise software applications to power future collaboration services. According to Nye, the social network has very high penetration in the finance business, so money managers like Goldman Sachs could use it as a networking tool to do everything to drawing in more assets to checking out the references of job seekers (there are plenty of those right now.)

Also, the LinkedIn network can already be imported into the Business Exchange that has just been launched by McGraw Hill’s BusinessWeek – a service that lets users view content from around the Web that has been aggregated by people in their network.

The appearance of companies like SAP and Goldman as shareholders does not guarantee that ideas like these will pan out, of course. Nor does it necessarily mean that LinkedIn will ride out the economic downturn unscathed (Nye will only say that, for this year, revenues will rise by over 100 per cent and that membership, at 30m, is rising 2m a month.) But it is a strong endorsement for a company which has already found several ways to make money from its early lead, and which has displayed an expansive vision for extending the uses of its network.

LeeWilliamsThe news from the Symbian smartphone show in the UK was that Lee Williams (pictured) was announced as the new head of the Symbian Foundation, the provider of the mobile software platform supported by many industry players.

But the recent annoucement of iPhone App store rivals by RIM and Google makes the European side of the mobile platform market seem a little behind the curve. While the US is making a marketplace for developers, questions over the Foundation’s independence are still being raised.

Williams is from Nokia, the company which of course bought Symbian with the grand gesture of turning Symbian OS and S60 open source. So let the conspiracy nudge-nudge wink-wink suggestions start: is he too close to the mothership? And is Nokia really going to make this open?

The question of independence was raised at the press conference by Nomura’s mobile analyst Richard Windsor, and Williams took it in his stride, saying he had given up any equity or interests in Nokia and had always operated independently. Later when I spoke to him, he put it rather more prosaically:

“I was only at Nokia for two years. I haven’t been drinking the Kool-Aid for that long.”

One analyst said to me that the question of where Williams was from would be forgotten in a few months. The key question is when and to what degree will an open operating system be released. And on that question, Williams was unequivocal: first half of 2009.

But questions over whether being open source is more of a marketing badge or a means of differentiating your platform to Windows, Apple et al, is irrelevant to many developers. Open or not, they just want the tools to get their application to market. And on that front, Symbian has its work cut out. Every developer I spoke to said developing for Symbian was harder. “Challenging” was a word frequently used. Another word was “money”, highlighting the obvious attraction of the iPhone app store as well as the new marketplaces from RIM and Google.

According to Williams, “challenging” goes hand in hand with capability and an appreciation for complexity. But he admits that “serving both the developers who want to create a full-blown office-type app and those looking to create a quick widget is the conundrum”. He hasn’t got long to solve it.

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Richard Waters, Chris Nuttall and April Dembosky in the FT's San Francisco bureau share their views - plus tech insights from Tim Bradshaw and Maija Palmer in London and Robin Kwong in Taipei.



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Contact the FT Tech Hub team: richard.waters@ft.com, chris.nuttall@ft.com, april.dembosky@ft.com, maija.palmer@ft.com, robin.kwong@ft.com and tim.bradshaw@ft.com.

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