"Rumours of iTunes’ death have been greatly exaggerated," according to ComScore, which says iTunes revenues rose 84 per cent in the first three quarters of 2006, compared with the year-ago period.

That fits with a separate analysis by Gene Munster at Piper Jaffray:

Contrary to recent reports suggesting sales on iTunes are declining rapidly, our analysis of Apple company data regarding iTunes sales shows strong growth [year-on-year].

Piper says its analysis showed iTunes sales up 78 per cent year-on-year between January and September.

Both analyses followed a report earlier this week by Forrester analyst Josh Bernoff, which said iTunes sales dropped 65 per cent sequentially between January and June. Piper Jaffray’s figures lend credence to the view that the sequential decline was due to seasonality in iPod sales:

It is clear…that iTunes sales spike upward in January…We attribute this  post-holiday growth to new iPod owners and iTunes gift card users. We expect another uptick in early ‘07.

The Forrester figures still pose vexing questions. In 2005, they show revenues per thousand online households falling sharply from their spike in January, then recovering in May and June. Forrester’s estimates showed that the spike in January this year wasn’t as high. And with the exception of a brief recovery in April, iTunes revenues per household fell steadily between January and July.

With just two years’ worth of iTunes data, it is difficult to draw firm conclusions. But if last year’s second-half recovery in iTunes sales fails to materialise, Apple may have reason to worry.

December 14th, 2006 in Media, Music | Permalink