January 29, 2007
Intel’s tinier steps outpace rivals
Analysts appear underwhelmed by Intel and IBM’s simultaneous announcements of the biggest chip breakthrough in 40 years.
Joe Osha at Merrill Lynch says Intel and others have been talking about using high-k dialectric materials in next-generation 45-nanometre technology for years, so the accomplishment is no surprise.
What is more interesting, he argues, is how many companies are likely to stay in this race to build smaller-scale chips as the technology becomes more challenging in the move from 45nm to 32nm and beyond.
He has a point. Texas Instruments announced last week in its earnings report that it would be pooling its resources with its Asian foundry partners in future research. IBM has also developed research partnerships with Toshiba, Sony and AMD.
Intel seems intent on ploughing a lone furrow. This is giving it a manufacturing lead at present – it will be first to market with 45nm chips, beating AMD by perhaps a year.
The question is whether this will translate into market-share gains. Its lead in the current 65nm generation suggests it might, with the cheaper manufacturing process making it better able to compete in a price war with AMD.
