August 8, 2008
Desktop Linux, part 2: charge up the defibrillator
Some readers took issue with my reference to Linux on PCs as DOA (though, I should add, very respectfully - these open-source types certainly know how to conduct a civil conversation.)
Yes, it was flip, I admit it. But let’s face it: enterprise customers haven’t bitten, and enterprise is the real focus of the latest IBM push.
As several commenters usefully pointed out, though, there are other markets where the story could be different. Governments, particularly in Europe, have already taken a lead.
Much the most interesting question is how the new market for consumer netbooks develops. If this truly is the new market for low-priced portable computing then it’s a natural for open-source (issues of useability aside.)
One very encouraging sign today: Intel has apparently just placed a massive order for the Atom processors aimed at this new market. According to an analyst at Citigroup, the chip company has ordered 45m chip packages for the second half of this year, ten times as many as most analysts had expected. Even if part of this is to build inventory, it still indicates that Intel expects significant uptake of Atom-based netbooks (like the Asus EEE) in the second half of this year - and that should be fertile soil for Ubuntu and its rivals (it was enough to give Intel’s stock a 4 per cent bump today.)
As for Linux on enterprise PCs, though - the body will probably have to stay on ice a while longer.
“(though, I should add, very respectfully - these open-source types certainly know how to conduct a civil conversation.)”
Well thank you. We wish to advance the cause and stomping our feet won’t make that happen.
Most of the FOSS community types take the long view. We can afford to we have no ROI to report next quarter. Red Hat and IBM might, but they are not the heart of the movement though important contributors.
Linux will win by the Toyota model. Back in 70’s Toyota hit the market with the Corrolla. Then it was a good cheap car. Fast forward to today. Toyota now dominates the north american market. The UMPC is Linux foot in the door. Users will when they upgrade other equipment most likely to a Linux OS to have ‘unity’ across systems.
I don’t expect Linux to own the market next year. I expect it to have 40% share in 15 years. If we get there I personally would be satisfied.
It took 29 years for Toyota to reach the postion they are in now. We in the FOSS community should be as patient. Time is on our side.
Posted by: JohnMc | August 8th, 2008 at 2:19 am | Report this comment@JohnMc
“It took 29 years for Toyota to reach the postion (sic) they are in now.”
It’s been longer than that. Toyota opened their first dealership in Southern California back in 1958. Now who would have thought 50 years later that they would have overtaken GM as the world’s largest automaker?
Posted by: MisterMeister | August 8th, 2008 at 3:23 am | Report this commentThe performance of Linux on the desktop has been a controversial topic, with at least one key Linux kernel developer, Con Kolivas, accusing the Linux community of favouring performance on servers. He quit Linux development because he was frustrated with this lack of focus on the desktop, and then gave a ‘tell all’ interview on the topic
Posted by: bank | August 8th, 2008 at 5:28 am | Report this commentIt’s irresponsible blogging about the open source community that rankles me. Everybody with access to a blog has now become an “expert” on open source, even when - by virtue of their opinion(s) - they do not understand the community.
The US is an aberation when it comes to adoption of open source software. Look to Spain, Germany, Singapore, and parts of Africa to get a true picture of the extent of open source adoption in the enterprise.
Whenever you express an opinion about open source software and the open source community that is not true, you are helping the likes of Microsoft and its cronies to spread FUD.
Fortify just tried that a few weeks ago with a bogus security “study”, and we shut it down here
Posted by: finid | August 8th, 2008 at 5:43 pm | Report this commentA lot of blogs were (wrongly) reporting that RedHat had given up on the desktop market. What RedHat actually said was that they were not interested in the CONSUMER market.
RedHat continue to roll out enterprise desktops, see http://www.redhat.com/rhel/desktop/
Posted by: Tel | August 12th, 2008 at 12:09 pm | Report this commentand Novell/SuSE have their enterprise desktop offering too, obviously these companies see value in that market. Enterprise customers don’t make much noise about their IT purchasing decisions.
It would be interesting to find out any stats on dual-boot PCs. I have 3 PCs all of which dual boot with XP and Ubuntu Hardy Heron.
As I learn to use WINE, I find I need XP less and less.
Posted by: Brisbane marketing | August 21st, 2008 at 11:40 am | Report this comment