August 6, 2008
Desktop Linux still DOA
One of the great tech non-events of the last few years involves Linux on PCs. Every so often, another wave of hype washes in about how companies are finally going to ditch their Windows machines in favour of the open-source operating system and productivity apps like Sun’s StarOffice and (more recently) IBM’s Symphony.
I suppose you can’t blame IBM for trying to capitalise on the bad press of Windows Vista to try to give this story another spin. It has just agreed a deal with the three top Linux companies to distribute its own Notes and Symphony software alongside the operating system. The promise: a “turnkey” software package that, according to IBM, cuts 30 per cent or more from the cost of buying a new enterprise PC.
Companies are finally getting the message about desktop Linux, claims an IBM official, pointing to the evidence from a report by Forrester: this showed that last year the number of enterprise PCs running Linux rose from 0.1 per cent to 0.5 per cent.
No, that’s not a misprint: 0.5 per cent.
When I spoke to Simon Yates at Forrester, he was roundly dismissive of the idea that enterprise customers have got any more interested in running Linux on their PCs:
It’s going nowhere. It’s not made any headway in the last 4-5 years.
The research numbers quoted by IBM, according to Yates, didn’t show anything significant. Forrester tracks the operating systems of the computers that log onto its Website, and that’s a number that can go up and down.
Will the backing of the IBM brand help? It certainly helped Linux on the server, but the PC story is different. As Yates says, companies face enough upheaval upgrading from one version of Windows to the next without contemplating jettisoning Windows altogether. Still, at the margin it can’t hurt. And, from IBM’s point of view, if it at least gives customers more ammunition to argue for lower prices from Microsoft, so much the better.
Linux is secure because every single file has permissions that prevent access by unauthorized users. This also makes it difficult for novices like me to use.
Windows on the other hand doesn’t explicitly waste your time with security, but you’ll very soon find your machine chugging under the weight of spyware, viruses, and worst of all, antivirus software. You need only to run an .exe file to make something happen in Windows, but that goes for hackers too!
I won’t be buying MSFT anytime soon because when Linux’s usability issues are corrected, MSFT will have an inferior product, priced too high. For everyday users willing to occasionally fight to get drivers, hardware, programs, etc. installed, Linux is already better. Getting set up is the hard part, so it’s a natural for pre-installation.
Posted by: Chris B | August 6th, 2008 at 8:50 pm | Report this commentI think millions of consumers are waiting for a chance to use a non MS Pc, but it needs to be simpler to start and use then MS, it’s got to be as cool and easy as Mac… now if IBM , Lenovo and the Linux makers ,etc., would make it so, and if it was in total synch with their LiMo mobile phones ,Pda’s and laptops, then …well, they would have a winner…IBM also makes chips for video gamers, right? so the next parallel computer with 3d-projector-hologram-avatar-money/machine-
Posted by: blogger | August 6th, 2008 at 9:56 pm | Report this commenttranslator-GPS -videoconf. device using Linux is as easy as 1-2-3 and cheap, many people would go for it and i’ll buy one too.
The entry point is surely the small end of the SME market where cost can win over decision makers more easily versus fear of the unknown. As these companies grow, so too will the installed Linux base.
Posted by: Burak | August 6th, 2008 at 11:58 pm | Report this commentMy favorite sales guru, Jeffrey Gitomer, wrote a book called “Customer Satisfaction is Worthless, Customer Loyalty is Priceless”, that I highly recommend, and that applies in this case.
There are many satisfied Microsoft customers. The computer does what they want, when they want, most of the time.
Microsoft has no loyal customers. Nobody loves Microsoft, the way people love Mac OSX or Linux. This is a problem for Microsoft. Their user base rests on sand.
People are switching to Linux. At least when it’s pre-installed. Linux is available on many of the Mobile Internet Devices. I know several people who would never install an operating system, who bought their MIDS with Linux installed.
People are also switching to OSX. Go to an Apple store, and watch the action. Then go to Best Buy, Future Shop, etc., and compare what you see. Apple has a lot of fans. Apple has people who love the product. Microsoft doesn’t.
Is this going to kill Microsoft? No. But it is going to, over the next few years, change the computing market. Microsoft was able to keep the high level market share they had, for as long as they did, because Apple spent nearly 10 years in the wilderness, and because they had made deals with the computer makers to pre-install Windows on every PC built. Because of the consent decree from the anti-trust case they can no longer do this. Now Microsoft has competition, and historically the company has never done well when facing competition. The problem is that Microsoft is set up to sell to the OEMS only. They aren’t used to dealing with consumers, they don’t know how to design for consumers, and management doesn’t even appear to realize that consumers are an issue. After all the customer is the computer OEM, is it not?
So I expect them to slowly loose market share. And this will be good for the market. The pressure of having competition in their main market, will force Microsoft to innovate for possibly the first time in their corporate existence, and as usual when there’s competition, the consumer wins.
Posted by: Wayne | August 7th, 2008 at 2:15 am | Report this commentAs pointed out in another comment, Linux is gradually making it onto consumer computers, but many people don’t even realise it. Mobile phones, and ultra portable computers like the ASUS EEPC. The EEPC shows Linux doesn’t need to be hard to use for normal users.
Now OEMs are starting to feel confident enough to offer it pre-installed, without fearing retribution from Microsoft. When pre-installed Linux computers are more readily available, we will see a (slow) growth in Linux use.
Posted by: PaulH | August 7th, 2008 at 6:05 am | Report this comment“… DOA”, eh? Dude, you are dead wrong. That desktop Linux’s adoption in the enterprise has been very slow does not mean that Windows desktop is better, it’s just a function of mindset. It’s really about fear and ignorance, especially at the managemnet level.
All it takes to get desktop Linux in any enterprise is for the CTO or any other top mag to demand it. The IT guys will respond faster than you can imagine.
It has happened in several places. Will publish an example at http://linuxbsdos.com in a couple of days.
Posted by: finid | August 7th, 2008 at 6:15 am | Report this commentAlthough i believe that market share is far above 0.5, according to your article the rise of share was 500% in one year! To my way of thinking, that is quite good!
Posted by: kostasan | August 7th, 2008 at 6:26 am | Report this commentLinux will keep spreading fast, it is inevitable.
Max OS X and Linux are much better than Vista, the easiest system to use is MAC OS X.
The danger for Microsoft is Apple’s next operating system, Snow Leopard that should be launched in one year.
It has been rumored that it could be opened to all PCs, not only to Macintosh.
I am not sure it is Apple’s interest to open it, but if they do, I think it will be the beginning of the end for Windows.
Eric
Posted by: Eric | August 7th, 2008 at 8:08 am | Report this commentI think you need to decide whether you’re talking about ‘Personal Computers’ or ‘Desktops’. The Personal Computer market has seen a huge surge in Linux adoption since the ultra-mobile / subnotebook wave. The eeePC, the MSI Wind and all the little cheap ‘web browsers’ all use Linux, and a lot of people have them.
Posted by: Christian | August 7th, 2008 at 9:40 am | Report this commentAs another correspondent has commented, the Asus Eee is the device that has taken so much of the FUD factor away from Linux.
Millions of people around the world are realising that it’s just as easy (and indeed faster) to connect to the Web from a Linux PC than from a Windows PC.
The success of this device, coincident with the failure of the UMPC form-factor, has clearly panicked Microsoft into encouraging Asus to support Windows on it.
It’s not surprising that vendors are starting to think that Linux PCs really could take off in the enterprise.
One area where Linux on the Eee is less friendly than Windows is in installing new applications. For enterprises wanting to discourage employees from customising their PCs, this is a benefit rather than a disadvantage,
Posted by: Gavin Wilson | August 7th, 2008 at 2:42 pm | Report this commentYou know, people made statements like this about browsers not too long ago. As I recall they included stuff like,
-The browser wars are over, I.E. wins!
-Firefox no contender to I.E.
-Firefox market share 1%, paltry to I.E.
-Firefox gaining minuscule market share, no threat to MS
etc, until today…..
-Firefox est. at 20% market share at the expense of I.E.
People fear change, and some things are often understated or misstated as a result. I’m not sure who Mr. Yates is, but I do know that he has not talked to myself or any of my peers. While we may not be in the private sector, we are in government, and I think Linux use is a little more than .5%. For example, where I work its more like, oh, 30% and rising. Several organizations we work with have an active ban on Vista, with the only migration paths available being to Mac or Linux/Unix solutions. Just because organizations currently buy systems with windows on them (to be replaced with Linux post purchase) doesn’t mean they aren’t there. It means the survey methods being used have not been updated to properly reflect new methods of distribution and are therefore grossly inaccurate.
Desktop Linux may not be growing at the rate you would like to see across the board, but don’t discount massive growth just because its a fraction of a billion. Fractions of large numbers are still large numbers and should not be casually dismissed.
,ValentineS
Posted by: ValentineS | August 7th, 2008 at 5:43 pm | Report this commentWhile it’s true that Linux movement onto the desktop to date has been insignificant, there are a lot of good signs that that is about to change. One sign is the remarkable growth in Linux use over just the past year. A five-fold increase in one year is a dramatic movement. Changes like that are being driven by a fairly strong desire/need of some kind within the industry.
Another sign is the very availability of preinstalled Linux from major PC retailers. Barely a year ago, such an option would have been unimaginable. The mere availability of such an option is a much greater leap than the likely expansion such options will probably see in coming years. The important change has already happened.
Linux will need to achieve a critical mass of users on the desktop before it becomes routine. It has taken longer for movement to occur in this direction than most of us predicted. But such movement is not only occuring, it seems to be developing momentum. And, for all its size, money, and influence, Microsoft does not appear to have the ability to stop this.
Posted by: Trent Treviso | August 7th, 2008 at 6:17 pm | Report this commentThere was an interesting article recently about a guy purchasing an HP laptop for $599, not accepting Microsoft’s EULA and subsequently receiving a check from HP for $200 (article here: http://arstechnica.com/journals/microsoft.ars/2008/07/21/blogger-gets-200-check-from-hp-for-declining-vistas-eula).
I think one of the problems is that people don’t realize how much Windows is costing them in the system purchase. If people were given the following choice:
Laptop X with Ubuntu……$399
Laptop X with Windows…$599
they might start to pick Linux more often.
Posted by: linuser | August 7th, 2008 at 6:36 pm | Report this commentThe number I heard earlier this year that we are supposedly up to is 37million users. This is up from 30million at the end of calender year ‘07. Microsoft Windows variants claim 90% of all computer operating systems, and I believe it is acknowledged by sales figures that MacOSX accounts for about 3%. The last 7% is what then? GNU/Linux primarily, with a little BSD and Solaris variants in there for spice.
As I see it that makes us fairly powerful, although it is my personal contention that the desktop is not an indicator of uptake velocity. For that you look at the Mobile Internet Devices(MIDS) with GNU/Linux pre-installed that have been mentioned here earlier, the smart/feature phones that are being designed specifically to run GNU/Linux from major phone makers that will be released later this year towards xmas, and all the media, nav, and network devices with GNU/Linux embedded into them.
Look at how many makers and different models are now offered, and almost all are successful, if not wildly so! Because there are no sales numbers to track and no activation required to set up one, a dozen, or a hundred GNU/Linux machines, there is no verifiable way to track the installed base.
Based on what I have hear and read from enterprise and government IT guys/gals over the last couple years, not only are the number of GNU/Linux installations growing along with the uses to which it is being put(not just for servers anymore), but the speed with which it grows is increasing. There is no end in sight.
Posted by: OlympicSoftworks - Dave | August 7th, 2008 at 7:33 pm | Report this commentLinux is free. Windows most certainly isn’t.
Yet despite this the vast majority of PC users will pay a large premium to use Windows vs Linux. So what does this tell us about most PC users? Well, Linux is certainly more secure than Windows, but Windows is more intuitive than Linux. It seems pretty clear to me from this that people are prepared to pay a large premium for a system that is easier to use. In fact, I wouldn’t be uncomfortable saying that ease of use is THE primary factor in the general users choice of operating system.
On this basis the hurdle to widespread adoption of Linux is ease of us and until Linux can compete with Windows in this area it will not be a serious alternative. However, Linux is getting easier to use and this is partly demonstrated by the significantly increased number of its users.
But what about Macs? The Linux and Mac platforms are both derived from UNIX, which is why they both offer good security compared with Windows. However Mac’s OS X is far more intuitive than even the best Linux platforms I’ve come across. On the assumption that ease of use is the prime factor affecting the choice of OS, it should be no surprise that Macs are more widely used than Linux.
However, Mac’s are less common than Windows PCs even though Macs offer a security advantage over Window and are just as user friendly. The most obvious reason I can see for this is price; Mac PCs are certainly more expensive than an equivalent Windows system (although this may also be partly justified by the fact that Macs do look pretty cool). So what does all this tell us about the general PC user? The average PC user’s order of priorities are; ease of use, price and then security.
Linux already has security and price on its side. So, on the basis of my (simplistic) argument, if Linux can improve its user interface to a level approaching Windows or OS X (and remain free of course) then I think that it would be highly likely that LInux will start to steal significant market share from OS X and Windows while giving Microsoft and Apple Execs some restless nights and tatty fingernails!
NB. I have a Windows XP PC on my desk at work for email and such but use Linux for much of the more technical aspects of what I Do (a PhD in Mechanical Engineering). These comments were written on a Mac.
Posted by: Alexander Fergusson | August 7th, 2008 at 8:39 pm | Report this commentASUS - CUSTOMERS PREFER LINUX IF THEY CAN GET IT.
http://www.reghardware.co.uk/2008/07/14/asus_linux_eee_901_famine/
(quote)
Asus has blamed Intel not Microsoft for the apparent absence of the Atom-based Eee PC 901 from UK suppliers’ shelves.
Readers alerted us to the fact that while Windows XP-loaded 901’s are available to buy from British resellers, there’s a paucity of the Linux version. It’ll be available in late July, suppliers say.
Asus produces Linux and XP Eees in equal numbers, she claimed, and will continue to do so: the Linux Eees are the better selling models. “We think our version of Linux is how we will stand out from our competitors,” she said.
That may explain why there aren’t any now: they’ve been sold, leaving only the less popular XP models still available to buy.
(unquote)
There is the absolute proof that Linux not being widely adopted is mainly due to anti-competitive monopoly abuse tactics by Microsoft to keep Linux from being sold preloaded on desktop PCs and laptops. Most OEMs charge £50 or so more for Linux preloads than Windows preload PCs, which effectively means that they are paying for the Windows license plus £50 for Linux which is free. Unsurprisingly, when offered a deal like this, most Linux customers buy the Windows version and then load Linux themselves.
Posted by: SPM | August 7th, 2008 at 10:32 pm | Report this commentIF YOU ARE GOING TO WRITE FOR FT, GET YOUR FIGURES RIGHT BOY!
(quote)
Companies are finally getting the message about desktop Linux, claims an IBM official, pointing to the evidence from a report by Forrester: this showed that last year the number of enterprise PCs running Linux rose from 0.1 per cent to 0.5 per cent.
No, that’s not a misprint: 0.5 per cent.
(unquote)
The percentage of desktops sold preloaded with Linux in UK is 2.8% currently - this is accurately known.
http://www.theinquirer.net/gb/inquirer/news/2008/08/01/linux-preloads-rocket-per-cent , and UK is one of the countries lower down in the world rankings for Linux adoption.
The figure of 0.1% to 0.5% is complete baloney.
The estimated percentage of desktops with Linux installed separately is difficult to estimate because Linux is mostly downloaded free of charge and can be installed on any number of PCs subsequently. However it is likely to be a similar number. This means 6% or so Linux marketshare.
Posted by: SPM | August 8th, 2008 at 1:11 am | Report this commentThanks for the thoughtful comments - I’ve posted a follow-up here -
Posted by: Richard Waters | August 8th, 2008 at 2:02 am | Report this commenthttp://blogs.ft.com/techblog/2008/08/desktop-linux-part-2-charge-up-the-defibrillator/
I would like to point out one other thing that is going on in the Microsoft camp. Dell and other OEM’s up until recently were giving customers the choice between a backrev to XP or Vista. But regardless of which the customer picked the ’sale’ is listed as a Vista sale.
Bottom line — Vista sales are overinflated.
Posted by: JohnMc | August 8th, 2008 at 2:03 am | Report this comment