Putting a price on Asian eyeballs

August 5th, 2008

friendster.jpg The Asian online advertising market is probably worth around $3-5bn a year.

That’s according to Richard Kimber, who has just taken over as CEO of social networking site Friendster. Hard numbers are difficult to come by, but as the former regional head of Google’s business in South Asia Kimber probably has as good a handle on this as anyone.

Compare that with the $26-27bn US online advertising market this year and you get a sense of where the real money on the internet will be made for some time to come. There’s a temptation to make loose comparisons of online audience numbers around the world, but not all eyeballs on the global internet are equally valuable. The average US internet user helps to generate around $140 of advertising a year: in Asia, the figure is more like $10-15.

Even then, it would be a real mistake to look at Asia as a single bloc. When I spoke to him, Kimber singled out Australia, Japan, South Korea and Singapore as the most developed advertising markets in the region. The countries where he says Friendster has the strongest foothold: Malaysia, the Philippenes, Indonesia and Singapore.

That puts a different perspective on the sort of audience numbers that are frequently bandied around freely in the internet world. Sure, Friendster’s 75m registered users (up from 45m a year ago) and 37m unique monthly visitors are impressive numbers and, thanks to the network effects, may give it a lasting foothold. But making money from social networks is proving tough even in the developed markets.

Kimber, an Australian who once ran the First Direct online bank in the UK and HSBC’s internet businesses in Hong Kong, says he’s hoping eventually to lead a Friendster IPO, though “in the long term”. In the shape of IDG Ventures, which has just led a $20m financing round (Friendster has raised $45m in all) he also has a new investor on board with a good track record in the region. It looks like they’re digging in for the long haul: good thing.

Apple’s MobileMe misadventure

August 5th, 2008

It appears that Steve Jobs has admitted to a rare mistake in the launch of MobileMe, the re-vamped version of Apple’s .Mac internet services suite.

The subscription service, which allows users to store files, check email, upload photos, and perform other tasks online, has been plagued by problems since it launched at the same time as the new 3G iPhone, the iPhone applications store, and the iPhone 2.0 software update last month.

Ars Technica, which claims to have seen an email sent to Apple employees by Mr Jobs, says the Apple boss felt that the launch of MobileMe was “not up to Apple’s standards”:

“It was a mistake to launch MobileMe at the same time as iPhone 3G, iPhone 2.0 software and the App Store,” the website quoted Mr Jobs as saying. “We all had more than enough to do, and MobileMe could have been delayed without consequence.”

Ars Technica says that, in the same email, Mr Jobs announced a reorganisation of Apple’s MobileMe team:

For one, the entire group will now report to Eddy Cue (you may remember Cue’s name showing up in numerous iTunes-related press releases). Cue will now lead all Internet-related services at Apple—including iTunes, the App Store, and now MobileMe—and will report directly to Steve Jobs.

Teething problems aside, Apple clearly has high hopes for the MobileMe service. And it’s easy to see why. Given the increasingly on-the-go nature of Apple’s target audience, a service that allows users to seamlessly synch their email, contacts and other important files with their iPhones, Macs or PCs over an internet connection sounds compelling.  All the more reason for Apple to take the time needed to do it right.

Total eclipse of the Sun?

August 4th, 2008

If three years ago a company had $7.4bn of cash on hand, but now its entire market cap has fallen to $7.2bn, how much confidence would you have in the management?

That about sums up the state of play at Sun Microsystems. So why aren’t the private equity vultures circling? When the stock traded at a split-adjusted $15-20 it seemed that every buy-out artist in Silicon Valley wanted in. Now the shares are scraping a 13-year low of $9. With the US economy heading down and Sun admitting on Friday that it is heading back into the red, Wall Street seems to have given up on the Schwartz-Lehman turnaround.

One Silicon Valley banker I spoke to scotched any hope of a buy-out, even at these prices: the mess in the debt markets has made it hard to create the right capital structure (Sun used a big chunk of that $7.4bn for an acquisition, though it is still sitting on nearly $3bn.)

This person also discounted the chance of a strategic deal, though the server market might seem to be crying out for some consolidation (Sun’s share slipped to 10.5 per cent in the first quarter, according to IDC, with Dell overtaking it for the first time. A combination of these two would still not challenge leaders IBM and HP.)

Sun’s long-suffering shareholders are left with a tough decision. Is the company simply over-exposed to the US, and to the downturn in spending by financial service and telecom companies - and might it therefore bounce back strongly in better times? Or, despite the success of its Niagara servers, does it have the wrong mix of products - too dependent on the shrinking market for high-margin corporate servers, too weak in the high-volume machines that the “cloud computing” future requires?

What on earth will the aliens think? Bebo goes into space

August 4th, 2008

VoyagerdiskToday saw the launch of A Message from Earth, a “ground-breaking digital time capsule that will be created entirely by the Bebo community this summer and beamed into deep space on a 120 trillion-mile journey.”

The Bebo page has a video introduction by someone called Venetia, who tells us that there’s a planet 20.5 light years away that is very similar to Earth, “and could, in fact, hold life”. In fact we have no idea, but don’t let that stop you.

Bebo users can submit text messages, photographs and drawings to be beamed into space. So what should we send? The press release helps out: “From our natural planet, the achievements of mankind or the worst traits of humanity to a best friend or a favourite celebrity, nothing is too big or small to be included.”

Celebrities are also being asked to participate. So far the list includes: Gillian Anderson of The X Files, Chris Carter (creator of The X Files), Buzz Aldrin (second man on the moon) and broadcaster-astronomer Patrick Moore, which is hardly “the broad spectrum of leading figures in the world of music, sport, fashion, film, politics” promised by the project.

But more worryingly, the last few messages left by commenters on the Bebo page don’t exactly augur well for the content to be sent. So far we have: “What Is This?” and “you phoned me up about this job and i wasnt in and you said u were going to phone back but you didnt”.

A nice idea, but is this really the best way of communicating with aliens? I agree that it’s time we moved on from sending pictures of Vitruvian man or strange golden records (see picture above) into space, but I fear that if any other life forms do intercept the messages, they might deem us not worthy of a reply.

The speech Jerry Yang will not give today

August 1st, 2008

Yahoo’s annual shareholder meeting is due to start soon. It’s the first Jerry Yang has faced since becoming CEO - it just feels like a lifetime. This is what he should say, but won’t:

Good morning. I’m glad to see so many loyal shareholders here today. I’ve had the distinct pleasure of meeting many of you face to face in recent weeks, and I can tell you it has been a deeply invigorating experience. Carl sends his regrets, but he asked me to pass on his best wishes.

I’ve thought long and hard about this, and I realise that what I’m going to say runs counter to much of what I’ve been telling you over the last year - but, hey, what is management all about if it isn’t learning how to deal with changed circumstances? I’ve always told you that this company has some of the best assets in the internet industry and a great long-term future. That’s still true. Only, the way things are going there won’t be a long term.

Carl’s brand of capitalism is a bit ugly but it has it’s point. So this is what I’m going to do for you. First off, we’re in advanced talks to sell our minority interests in two great Asian companies - Yahoo Japan and Alibaba. I hope you will take a minute to consider what great investments these have been for us. Getting into bed with Softbank in Japan was a stroke of brilliance that has created massive value for you, our shareholders, with little management distraction. And I know a lot of you had your doubts when we cozied up to Jack Ma in China - but trading in our own weak position there has turned into a home run. I still believe there’s much more mileage in these investments, but as I say, I can see the attraction of jam today.

We’ve pencilled in $10bn from these sales. The cash from these deals will be returned to shareholders immediately, through a buyback or special dividend.

Next up is the Google search deal. This will eventually bump up our free cashflow by more than a third with zero risk. I’m still confident we will get this through the regulators. However, if the Department of Justice stands in the way I will not hesitate to go back and get the best price I can for selling our search business to Microsoft.

I know I’ve told you before that, strategically, we need to stay in search. Really, though, it’s a question of price. Through a partnership with Microsoft we will still have access to all the same data from our search advertising system, and we will still be able to use this to devise campaigns for advertisers that combine the best of display and search. Also, since this is a time for realism, let’s admit it: we really don’t have much chance of a win head-to-head against Google on our own. I don’t think Microsoft does either, but if they want to try, that’s up to them.

There’s one other thing I’m here to tell you today. After careful thought, I’ve decided to step down as CEO, effective immediately. This is the one truly long-term decision I have to present to you today. You see, business is going to be tough in the next few months and I know you’ll all be watching me very carefully to see if I can turn the company around. Well, the truth is there won’t be any good news to report, not for a while, and I know I’ve exhausted your confidence and you won’t give me the benefit of the doubt. So I’m handing over to a new management team that will push forward with the things we’ve already set in motion. There is no change in strategy here, and none is needed. It’s all about execution now: I hope you will give the new team time to prove we are on the right course: they will need it.

It’s been an honour to serve as your CEO. Thank you.

Update: As usual, Yang did a better job at the shareholder meeting of describing Yahoo’s enviable assets than of explaining exactly what he is going to do with them. This has been his shortcoming for months, and it’s one he’s clearly aware of. There were a number of telltale moments today, like this one:

The strategy is quite simple. We have some tremendous consumer assets, we are focusing them around what we are calling starting points [like mail, search and the Yahoo home page.] Our goal is to create better and better starting points for more and more consumers.

That is a strategy? More and better?

To be fair, if Yahoo can get its advertising plans to work then it could finally start to make some headway. The current team has been talking for the past couple of years about the potential for “converged” online campaigns that combine search and display, but nothing’s come of it so far - just one more failure to execute. Sue Decker offered the closest thing to an actual promise that any Yahoo executive was prepared to make today:

If we can start to make display [advertising] as easy to buy as search is, we can then start to position ourselves for convergence. You’ll begin to see that later this year.

Time is not on her side, but at least the sense of urgency in Yahoo’s upper ranks now seems to be acute.

Street View needs to watch the signs

August 1st, 2008

Of all the schemes Google has dreamt up over the years, Street View has got to be one of the most controversial.

For those not familiar with the idea, Google are taking photos of every street in pretty much the whole world, and integrating it with Google Maps. Naturally, several privacy groups are up in arms at the idea, even though Google have agreed to blur faces and remove people if they request it.

But blurring isn’t Google’s only problem. In what may become a test case, a couple in Pennsylvania are suing Google for publishing pictures of their house, as it is on a private road.

In a statement to court, Google said complete privacy does not exist, but have since said that their remarks have been taken out of context. Google clarified this to me in the following statement:

“There’s been some misinterpretation concerning our response to the Street View suit… It should not be interpreted as a blanket statement on our views towards privacy. To be clear, Google respects an individual’s right to privacy. We have privacy protections built into all of our products. For example, we blur faces in Street View and we offer easy-to-use removal tools so users can decide for themselves whether or not they want a given image to appear in Street View. It is unfortunate the parties involved opted to pursue litigation instead of making use of these tools.”

This problem will be far greater for Street View in the UK due to the very high number of private roads. There are around 40,000 in the UK, according to Private Roads Services. Although it’s hard to quantify the number of public roads in the UK, I estimate there are around 100,000 streets in London (according to a quick calculation counting the entries in the London street atlas).

Google said its policy was to not photograph private roads, and that its drivers were trained to look out for them. Which I think means not driving past a sign saying “private road”. But a spokesman admitted that mistakes have been made, and they would be more careful in future. “We made the error of photographing the approach road to a military base in the US,” said the spokesman. “We learnt from that.”

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