Back to Tech Blog homepageDownbeat news about the technology sector is getting to be a regular feature around here. Today’s instalment comes courtesy of Citigroup, which published a note this morning slashing its forecasts for PC shipment growth in 2009.
Citi’s IT hardware analysts expect PC shipments to grow just 5 per cent next year, down from a previous estimate of 10-12 per cent. They also trimmed their guidance for this year, to 13 per cent from 15 per cent. 
The usual suspects - a slowing economy, currency fluctuations, job losses in the corporate sector and less disposable income - are all expected to weigh on computer sales, according to Citi.
There was some good news, however. According to Citi’s modelling, most of the damange has already been priced into IT hardware stocks. Take Hewlett-Packard (chart above). Richard Waters wrote here a few days ago about IBM’s recent share price falls. Like IBM, HP has also been hit by the recent jitters in the stock market. Its shares are down more than 11 per cent in recent days, mirroring the fall in the broader S&P 500 index since late September.
Citigroup now has HP trading on a multiple of 10 to 11 times forecast 2009 earnings - arguably a low number for a company that has shown, over the past three years under Mark Hurd, at least, that it is capable of wringing out costs and meeting earnings targets.
Serious caveats remain. As we have mentioned earlier, no one yet knows just how big an impact the credit crisis will have on business activity.
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