Why long-term VC returns are about to crater

February 1st, 2010 8:56pm

The 10-year return figures from Cambridge Associates are probably the best way to measure the performance of a long-term asset class like venture capital. As the profits from the dotcom bubble start to recede beyond that 10-year horizon (the Nasdaq peak was March 2000), the true picture of the industry’s performance starts to come into better focus.

The latest quarterly figures today (for the period up to 30 September 2009) revealed a slump in the 10-year return to 8.4 per cent, down from 40.2 per cent a year before when the full bubble effect was still in the numbers. Bad, certainly, but still respectable: the Nasdaq composite lost 2.5 per cent annually over the same period.

But the really bad news for the venture capitalists is still to come. Continue reading "Why long-term VC returns are about to crater"

Exclusive: YouTube profits “coming this year”

January 22nd, 2010 1:25am

As financial forecasts go, it wasn’t delivered with the sort of ringing conviction you might like.

But today, for the first time, Google’s CEO disclosed that he was expecting YouTube to make it into the black some time in 2010.

If he’s right, it will be a significant turning point, and bring vindication for one of the most controversial internet acquisitions ever mounted.

It came in a brief conversation I had with Eric Schmidt after the analyst call to discuss Google’s latest earnings. Continue reading "Exclusive: YouTube profits “coming this year”"

Mythical or not, the iPad’s impact is already being felt

January 21st, 2010 1:45am

A week before its expected unveiling, the reverberations from Apple’s tablet are already spreading out through the media industry. From today alone:

Amazon raised the royalty rate it pays to publishers and authors of certain e-books to 70 per cent of the cover price - not coincidentally, the same split Apple has turned into an industry norm through its App Store.

YouTube said it would start a video rental service, reaching beyond advertising into a new payment stream (though a test with video downloads last year went nowhere and was later scrapped). It was described by one analyst as a salvo aimed directly at Apple, as Google and Apple race to become dominant “cloud” video platforms. Continue reading "Mythical or not, the iPad’s impact is already being felt"

Microsoft and HP move up into the cloud

January 14th, 2010 1:34am

On a day when cyber-attacks are item number one in the tech news, it does not look like the most auspicious moment to launch a long-term alliance around cloud computing.

But for Microsoft and Hewlett-Packard, which said they would spend $250m over the next three years to extend their existing partnership deeper into cloud services, the timing makes perfect sense.

Alliances are hardening and battle lines are being drawn around the next computing platform. With Cisco moving steadily onto both companies’ turf, it’s a natural step to deepen one of the tech industry’s longer-standing partnerships. Continue reading "Microsoft and HP move up into the cloud"

For Google, not yet ‘game over’ in China?

January 13th, 2010 4:02am

“Whatever happens, they’re not getting out of China.”

That was the immediate reaction of one prominent Google rival to Tuesday’s announcement that the search company will stop censoring local search results in China, even if that means leaving the country.

Or is that actually what Google announced?

On closer reading, Google’s statement - made in a blog posting - may not be quite as clear-cut as it seems. Continue reading "For Google, not yet ‘game over’ in China?"

Dear Google, about that nice new Nexus One…

January 11th, 2010 8:22pm

This is embarrassing. Last week I was putting a new Nexus One supplied by Google through its paces at the CES show in Las Vegas (more about that below) when… I dropped it.

Nothing new about that, I drop things all the time - I’ve dropped a MyTouch Android phone so many times the cover’s beaten and scratched.

The Nexus One didn’t come out of it so well, though. Below the glass, hairline cracks appeared. The image started to darken and wrinkle in places. A day later, it was unusable. That’s five days to destroy a $590 device. How am I going to explain that to Google? Continue reading "Dear Google, about that nice new Nexus One…"

Taking the paper out of work

January 7th, 2010 8:32pm

It would be really nice to be able to believe in the success of the  Que proReader (and not just because the Financial Times is one of the publishers that has done a deal with Plastic Logic, the company that makes the device).

The history of the Que is one of those compelling technology stories that leaves you rooting for the people behind it, and the wide vision that it represents is infectious. Like all ambitious visions, though, this one relies on perfect execution.

Until the full reviews are in I’ll suspend final judgment, but my fear is that CEO Rich Archuleta’s claim that the Que marks the arrival of the “paperless briefcase” will end up being filed with all those similar promises of “paperless offices” we’ve heard over the years.

Continue reading "Taking the paper out of work"

Further thoughts on the (misnamed) “Google Phone”

January 6th, 2010 1:34am

After all the noise ahead of the launch, what should we make of the new Nexus One? (This was our live coverage of the event, with comments from readers). A few thoughts:

It’s not “the first Google Phone“. I know, you’ve read stories elsewhere saying it is, but trust us on this one: it really isn’t.

I quizzed Andy Rubin, head of Google’s Android team, on this: he insisted that Google had no more (or less) input on HTC’s Nexus One than it had on Motorola’s recent Droid. This handset does not break new ground - just because the Google brand name is bigger doesn’t make it a Google Phone. Continue reading "Further thoughts on the (misnamed) “Google Phone”"

Live coverage: Google mobile event

January 5th, 2010 5:00pm

This event is now over: you can read the transcript by clicking below on “continue reading”.

With its promise of a major mobile announcement set for today, Google has managed to upstage most of the announcements expected out of the annual Consumer Electronics Show before the extravaganza even starts later this week.

Will it be the much-discussed “Google Phone”? And can the internet company steal any of the thunder from Apple’s own heavily-trailed - though still unconfirmed - unveiling of a touch-screen tablet device later this month?

Find out what Google has up its sleeve. Join us here for live coverage, beginning at 10am California time, Tues Jan 5th.

Continue reading "Live coverage: Google mobile event"

Is this the real disruption from the Google Phone?

January 4th, 2010 8:39pm

Amidst all the hype about Tuesday’s expected launch of the first Google Phone, there is one overriding question that has gone unanswered: what is the One Big Idea behind this device that is so compelling that Google thinks it’s worth risking its relationship with other handset makers over?

Just sticking a Google brand on an HTC handset doesn’t add up to much, particularly since some Android phones already carry co-branding.

Maybe Google thinks it needs more control over the overall experience and has had a bigger hand in the hardware and software design. But it has also worked closely with Motorola and others on previous Android handsets, so how new would this be? According to this unauthorised review on Engadget, it’s nice, but only really a sleeker version of the Droid.

Continue reading "Is this the real disruption from the Google Phone?"