Which should come first: growth or austerity?
Debate is raging over whether government policy should favour short-term growth or short-term austerity. The British government has chosen austerity and the bond markets have rewarded it with low interest rates. But, a left-leaning think-tank claims to have the support of “100 leading economists” for its Plan B with higher public spending to boost the economy. Nevertheless, the UK should stick to its current path of cutting deficits.
Britain’s currency is not the global monetary anchor, nor is sterling considered a safe haven in turbulent markets. With a quarter of Britain’s debt held by foreigners, the country’s borrowing costs are directly determined by the confidence that the global bond market has in its policy. Last year 23 per cent of government spending was financed by borrowing. Entitlement programmes consume 29 per cent of the budget and represent the largest component of the structural deficit. Either these must be reduced or taxes will have to be raised. But already tax rates on individuals are among the highest among developed countries. These stark facts are the reason that the coalition government has wisely chosen to put austerity first in order to create the conditions for growth later. Economists may debate, but the markets will decide. Continue reading »