Mario Draghi, ECB president  © Getty Images

The latest Federal Open Market Committee minutes seem to have surprised market participants who were expecting the first rate rise to take place only in 2016. The “news” coming out of the US central bank after the September meeting suggested that the state of the world economy was still too risky to take the decision before the end of the year.

However, the grounds for the new message are not entirely clear. The macroeconomic data and financial market situation have not changed much in recent days. It may be that the European Central Bank’s announcement a couple of weeks ago that monetary policy in Europe could be further eased in December made a difference. In a press conference on 22 October, Mario Draghi, ECB president, clearly indicated that various options had been considered by the central bank’s governing council, including a further reduction of the deposit rate, which is already at a negative level (minus 0.25 per cent), and an increase in the monthly purchase of assets under the quantitative easing programme.

Why should the ECB’s intention of further easing monetary policy have induced the Fed to anticipate its tightening? Read more