Monthly Archives: March 2008

Dictators sometimes miscalculate. So I suppose it is possible that Robert Mugabe – failing to realise the depth of his own unpopularity – has just gone down to an electoral defeat in Zimbabwe that is so catastrophic that even he will be unable to reverse the result. But I am pessimistic. Mr Mugabe does not strike me as somebody who is likely to be shamed into doing the right thing. Nor is he the kind of man, who is likely to shrug and say that retirement might not be such a bad option after all. Maybe the army will turn against him? Otherwise, I think he will just dig in his heels and declare victory.

So what happens if Mugabe has indeed been clearly defeated – but decides to cling on to power and to brazen it out? I’ve just been listening to Lord Malloch Brown, Britain’s Africa minister, talking on the BBC World Service. He unequivocally ruled out the possibility of military intervention. Instead, he suggested two courses of action. First, Britain and other western countries should be absolutely clear in condemning a rigged election. Second, we should support African-led attempts at mediation – modelled on Kofi Annan’s efforts in Kenya.

Well, that sounds fine as far as it goes. But those measures don’t sound strong enough to dislodge a determined dictator like Mugabe. (And there is a big question mark – anyway – over whether Zimbabwe’s African neighbours, in particular South Africa, will be willing to get involved. Their record so far is pretty feeble.)

So if the kind of measures that Malloch Brown suggests won’t work, has anybody got any better ideas? What could the outside world do to support democratic change in Zimbabwe?

And – best case scenario – let’s say Mugabe is prevailed upon to step aside, what then? Some of his most damaging economic changes – in particular, the destruction of the farming sector through land redistribution – may be irreversible. So how could the outside world help a new Zimbabwean government?

I suppose it was inevitable. Events in Tibet have sparked calls for a boycott of the Olympics. Hans-Gert Poettering, the president of the European Parliament is speculating aloud about the possibility – and the parliament is due to debate Tibet later in the week.

Personally, I think it was a mistake to give the Olympics to China. It was inevitable that they would be used for political purposes, to bolster the Chinese government’s legitimacy and to herald China’s arrival as an international player. And I think its always preferable to hold the games somewhere small, rich and sunny – and without aspirations to global leadership: Barcelona and Sydney were perfect.

But now that the Chinese have been awarded the games, I think it would be an even bigger mistake to boycott them. Much as the West would insist that the boycott was aimed only at the Chinese government, it would be both portrayed and percieved as an insult aimed at the entire Chinese people. The great task of international relations over the next generation is going to be managing the rise of China. Picking symbolic fights – and so whipping up Chinese nationalism – is the wrong way to go about things, I think.

A lively debate has broken out on the blog between Mary Cunningham and “Danny” about whether the Bush administration bears any responsibility for the current financial crisis. They go into much more detail than I am capable of, so I suggest that readers take a look.

But let me make one simple point. This crisis is taking place in the eighth year of the Bush presidency. It must have very deep roots indeed, for the Bush administration to bear no responsibility.

In my original post, I used the phrase that the crisis happened “on Bush’s watch”. As Samantha Power pointed out to me at our recent lunch, this is a highly ambiguous phrase. Power was wearing one of those irritating little charity bracelets. This was a green one, carrying the phrase – “Not on my watch.” She explained that this is apparently what President Bush had written in the margin of one of her own articles, on the Rwandan genocide.

But, said Power, nobody was quite sure what Bush had meant by this. Did he mean that he bore no responsibility for this terrible event, because it had all happened during the Clinton administration? Or was he promising that nothing like this would happen during the Bush presidency? Or had somebody simply placed the article on his watch – and it was a polite request for them to remove it?

Various people have been in touch with me – by e-mail and on the blog – to ask what I thought of Obama’s speech on race and the Wright controversy? Wasn’t it a great speech, and doesn’t it prove that I was wrong to dismiss Obama as a master of empty rhetoric?

Difficult. Yes, it was a great speech. And perhaps I should just leave it at that. Any attempt at further explanation threatens to leave me sounding like one of those politicians, saying – “I do not for a moment withdraw any of my previous statements on this matter. However, in the light of recent events, I would like to issue some further remarks, expanding upon my previous statements and adding some important context.”

Well, I do not for a moment…etc, etc. But Obama’s race speech was completely different from his standard stump/victory speech - because of the context in which it was delivered. In his regular campaign appearances, Obama’s goal is simply to pump up the crowd with vague and vacuous applause lines. He is a master at producing euphoria. At one campaign stop, he was even cheered to the rafters simply for blowing his nose.

Some people are good in a crisis. Unfortunately, President Bush isn’t one of them. His comments on the global financial crisis yesterday were the opposite of reassuring. The simian furrowing of the brow suggested deep confusion. The bland assertion that “our financial institutions are strong” defied credulity. He even thanked Hank Paulson, the treasury secretary, for “working over the weekend”. Yes, that’s really going the extra mile, isn’t it?

Bush’s congratulations for Paulson have a nasty echo of his comments to the head of FEMA, Michael Brown, at the height of the Hurricane Katrina fiasco/tragedy – “Brownie, you are doing a heck of a job.”

Hurricane Katrina probably showcased Bush at his very worst. But, let’s face it, he didn’t exactly cover himself in glory on 9/11. It may have been the fault of the Secret Service, but the fact that the president simply disappeared in the immediate aftermath of the attack was pretty poor. True, Bush’s subsequent appearance with the New York firemen was effective. But, generally, this is not a man who exudes competence and leadership in a crisis.

As for the president’s legacy – what can one say? He was already likely to go down in history as one of the most ill-starred occupants of the Oval Office, because of the Iraq war. Now he risks having the next “great depression” on his watch. To combine the worst legacies of LBJ and Herbert Hoover – now that would be something.

There is a well-established pecking order of prejudice in western Europe. The British look down on the French, the French look down on the Italians, the Italians look down on the Spanish, the Spanish look down on the Portuguese – and everybody fears and ridicules the Germans.

But the Spanish have upset this xenophobic hierarchy. Spain is now richer, more fashionable and more dynamic than Italy. It boasts Europe’s most lauded chef (Ferran Adrià), its trendiest film director (Pedro Almodóvar) and its richest football club (Real Madrid). Barcelona has become Europe’s most talked about city – invoked longingly as a model by every run-down metropolis in Europe. Spain is chic now, just as Italy was chic in the 1960s.

The remainder of this column can be read here. Please post comments below.

 

Liberal Fascism: The Secret History of the American Left from Mussolini to the Politics of Meaning
By Jonah Goldberg
Doubleday $27.95, 496 pages

Heroic Conservatism: Why Republicans Need to Embrace America’s Ideals (And Why They Deserve to Fail If They Don’t)
By Michael J. Gerson
Harper One $26.95, 320 pages

Comeback: Conservatism That Can Win Again
By David Frum
Doubleday $24.95, 224 pages

They Knew They Were Right: The Rise of the Neocons
By Jacob Heilbrunn
Doubleday $26, 336 pages

Ever since the “Reagan revolution”, conservative intellectuals have dominated the battle of ideas in American politics. But the success of Jonah Goldberg’s silly book, Liberal Fascism, suggests that American conservatism may now be in some intellectual trouble. The book has done well in the United States. It reached number three on The New York Times bestseller list. Yet it is dedicated to an absurd proposition – that American liberals are the direct ideological heirs of Mussolini, Hitler and Franco. This is the kind of ya-boo politics that has deformed American talk radio for years. But it is depressing that you can get a bestseller out of such nonsense.

Goldberg is not a stupid man. A pundit and commentator, he writes fluently and occasionally amusingly – and he has read lots of books about fascism. The opening pages of his own work are a quasi-learned dissection of the central tenets of fascism. But the purpose of the book is not to understand fascism. It is to discredit American liberals. Goldberg piles example upon example, to draw harebrained comparisons between American liberals and fascists. Liberals buy organic food. But did you know that “Dachau hosted the world’s largest alternative and organic medicine research lab and produced its own organic honey”? Well, I never.

Over the course of almost 500 pages, Liberal Fascism pursues a tedious argument of insidious intent to lead us to an overwhelmingly stupid question: “Was Bill Clinton a fascist president?” Surprisingly, the answer to this question is No. Clinton, it seems, wasn’t even good enough to deserve the label fascist: “To say that he was a fascist himself is to credit him with more ideology and principle than justified.”

The remainder of this book review essay can be read here. Comments can be made below.

Another European Union summit has just got underway in Brussels. I used to go to a lot of these things. From the inside they can seem quite important and exciting. But as an outsider, it is often difficult to see the point.

You can say the same thing about what passes for foreign policy debate in the major European capitals. I was in Madrid last week. The outside world barely featured in the Spanish election campaign (other than in the form of illegal immigrants, mysteriously washing up on Spanish shores). Advisers to Jose Luis Zapatero, the prime minister, are proud of their man’s role in launching the “Alliance of Civilisations” – his major foreign policy initiative. But the “alliance” is a complete non-topic in the real world. (Can any readers of this blog honestly say that they they know what it is, without benefit of an internet search?)

Now I’m in Paris. Here too, the head of government has launched a major foreign policy initiative – generating much local fanfare, and very little interest anywhere else. Sarkozy’s big idea is a Mediterranean Union, attempting to create closer ties between the EU and North Africa. The French claim that the EU summit has already endorsed the idea – and they will certainly try to give it a renewed push when they take over the presidency of the EU later this year.

Does the resignation of Admiral William Fallon as head of CentCom mean that the “war party” is back in control of American policy to Iran?

I doubt it’s quite that simple. From what we know both the secretaries of state and defence – Rice and Gates – are opposed to an attack. But there is no doubt that fallon was a key member of the “peace party”.

I met him at the IISS conference in Bahrain late last year, just after the US had published the famous NIE report that appeared to debunk the idea that Iran is building nuclear weapons. Fallon was cock-a-hoop. He was keen to underline what a fundamental re-assessment this was and how “wrong”, in his eyes, previous intelligence reports had been.

It could be that Fallon is resigning for reasons other than Iran. He is said to be a difficult guy to work with. All the same, I would say that the odds of an attack on Iran before the end of the Bush administration, have just gone up.

Some people are too open for their own good. That was certainly how I felt after interviewing Samantha Power last week.

I had expected her, as a senior adviser on foreign policy to Barack Obama, to be ultra-careful and to weigh every word. Not at all. She was open and amusing, willing to give long discursive answers on controversial subjects, happy to admit to doubts about her abilities to do a government job. I was charmed. But I left the lunch wondering whether she was really cut out for politics.

My doubts were swiftly and brutally borne out. Ms Power was on an exhausting book tour in Britain and giving scores of interviews. In one of them, with The Scotsman newspaper, she made an off-the-record comment suggesting Hillary Clinton, Mr Obama’s rival for the Democratic nomination, was a “monster”. Within hours she was forced to resign from the Obama campaign.

The remainder of this column can be read here. Please post your comments below.

The World

with Gideon Rachman

About this blog About Gideon Blog guide
Gideon Rachman and his FT colleagues debate international affairs. Read more on the authors.

Gideon became chief foreign affairs columnist for the Financial Times in July 2006. He joined the FT after a 15-year career at The Economist, which included spells as a foreign correspondent in Brussels, Washington and Bangkok. He also edited The Economist’s business and Asia sections.

His particular interests include American foreign policy, the European Union and globalisation
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