The World

For a while this felt like it was going to be a bad night for Barack Obama. Hillary Clinton won a huge victory in Kentucky – and the television pundits had hours to dwell gloomily on Obama’s failure there. But Kentucky was then offset by a big win for Obama in Oregon.

The fact that Obama chose to give his evening speech in Iowa – the site of his first crucial victory – had excited speculation that he was going to claim that the Democratic race was over. Instead he contented himself with the claim that he is”within reach of the Democratic nomination” – which is undeniable. Instead Obama chose to signal his inevitable victory by a change in tone and focus. He was magnanimous towards Hillary, in the manner of a victor. And he focused the most effective part of his speech on an attack on John McCain.

The McCain bashing was well done. The Obama line is to acknowledge McCain’s reputation as a principled maverick – but to suggest that McCain has sold out to secure the Republican nomination. He claimed that McCain has now embraced Bush’s policies on health-care, tax and Iraq. This allows Obama to re-assert his claim that he is the “change” candidate.

How will all this shape up come November? I’m out of the prediction business for the moment. I think you could make a plausible case both for an Obama landslide – and for an Obama blow-out.

The landslide argument is that this is the Democrats’ year. The Republicans are doing dreadfully in the polls and in recent elections. Iraq and the economy both favour the Democrats. Obama is a much more effective fund-raiser than McCain, he is younger and he is bringing millions of new people into politics – he is the change candidate in a year in which America desperately wants change. He will win on the promise of a New Deal, just as Franklin Roosevelt once did.

The blow-out thesis would point out that Obama is doing appallingly badly among working-class whites, the “Reagan Democrats” who have been the crucial swing voters in previous presidential elections. He has fared badly in states that the Democrats pretty well have to win like Ohio and Pennsylvania. He is also acutely vulnerable on the crucial issue of patriotism – because of his association with Pastor “God damn America” Wright – and because he is running against a war hero. His popularity with the media and with the educated “chattering classes” is disguising these flaws. But come November, he is all set to be the George McGovern of 2008.

So is Obama FDR or McGovern? Let me fall back on the worst of journalistic cliches – only time will tell.