The World

Russia won the Eurovision song contest over the weekend. I believe that this result has ominous implications for the future of the European Union – particularly with Ireland’s referendum on the Lisbon Treaty coming up on June 12th.

I’m not joking. Or at least, not entirely.

The problem is that Western Europeans have begun to notice that they have no chance of ever winning Eurovision again because all the Central and Eastern European countries vote for each other. No western European country has won Eurovision since 2001. Terry Wogan, the BBC presenter, has suggested that Eurovision has become so politicised that western European countries should now consider quitting the contest altogether. (When Ukraine gave maximum points to Russia on Saturday night, Wogan suggested that “Ukraine wants to be absolutely sure that the oil and gas keeps flowing.”)

There is an analogy between the expansion of the number of Eurovision competitors in recent years and the enlargement of the European Union. Eurovision has grown faster. The contestants now include Russia, Ukraine, Israel and Serbia – none of whom are likely to be EU members anytime soon.

But the EU has also been expanding rapidly. It had just 12 members in 1995 – now there are 27, with the majority of the new members coming from Central and Eastern Europe.

With both Eurovision and the European Union, expansion has had a similar effect – western Europeans complain that they no longer recognise a club that they founded, and that they continue to fund.

A backlash against the enlargement of the EU was a large part of the explanation for the “No” votes in the French and Dutch referendums on the EU constitution in 2005.

The constitution has been re-invented in the form of the Lisbon Treaty – which Ireland must vote on in a few weeks time. The “Yes” campaign are leading narrowly, but seem nervous – and the Eurovision result might feed the Irish sense that they are falling out of love with Europe.

The Irish used to be the all-time Eurovision champs. They won four out of five Eurovisions between 1992 and 1996. Holding the unofficial crown of “minstrels of Europe” helped feed the Irish sense that they were loved across the continent – and that they loved Europe back in return.

But these days the Irish are disillusioned and cynical about Eurovision. (Terry Wogan is Irish.) Thet have not won for more than a decade. This year the Irish entry was a sort of joke: a song called “Irelande – douze pointes”, performed by a purple-beaked glove puppet, called Dustin the Turkey. Dustin was eliminated in the semi-finals and so didn’t get to perform on Saturday night.

Will the Irish take revenge in the referendum on June 12th? Weirder things have happened in Europe.