Is it finally safe to breathe out? It does look like Obama has finally nailed down the Democratic Party nomination. Once he has settled the pesky question of what to do about Hillary, he can finally turn all his fire on McCain.
I previewed some of the campaign themes on FT video earlier today.
But one question, we didn’t get around to discussing is the big one – who will win? Although the pollsters have not had a great record in this election so far – they got New Hampshire badly wrong, remember? – they still offer a more reliable guide than any pundit’s opinion. A wise colleague once told me – “Always trust the polls over what you have heard on the doorstep. They’ve talked to more people than you have.”
And the polls are not that encouraging for Obama. This year should be a shoo-in for the Democrats – given the economy, Iraq, eight years of Bush etc etc. But the numbers suggest that this will be a very close race. The average poll lead for Obama is now less than 2% – and there are still months and months left for McCain to turn that around. I put money on Obama back in November – so I’m not going to back down now. But it’s going to be very tight.
For views and opinions on the European Union from Peter Spiegel, Joshua Chaffin, Alex Barker and Stanley Pignal, follow the 