The World

There is a fascinating page in this morning’s FT on the latest “will they, won’t they” speculation on an Israeli attack on Iran.

The big third player in this drama is the US. As ever the questions are – will the Israelis be able to persuade the Americans to attack? If not, will they get the green light from the Americans to stage an attack themselves?

Like everything else in the US at the moment, the Iran question is being seen through the prism of the presidential election.

Last time I was in Washington, it was explained to me that President Bush – if left to his own devices (never a great idea) – would like to bomb. But he faces clear opposition from the American military, which was underlined by the head of the Joint Chiefs just yesterday. That means that an American attack is unlikely – but an Israeli attack is still a distinct possibility.

The McCain people rather relish the idea of an Israeli raid. That is partly because they think it is a good idea. (Their candidate is, after all, the man who sang – ‘bomb, bomb, bomb Iran’). But they also think it would mean that national security issues were back at the centre of the election, which might favour McCain. And they relish the thought of the difficulties that an Israeli bombing raid would pose for Obama.

My assumption is that Obama – given his recent courtship of the Israel lobby – would be unable to condemn an Israeli raid on Iran. I put this to someone who works for Obama, who replied – “I’m not sure what he would do. But I certainly wouldn’t want to be the guy writing the press release.”

A lot would depend on the attitude of the American military. If it were clear that senior American generals were unhappy with an Israeli attack on Iran, that might give Obama cover to come out against it.