The World

The first thing that happens on 9/11 is that there are memorial services and commemorations for the people who died. The second thing that happens is that lots of opinion polls are published.

This year – as ever – they make startling reading. A 17-nation survey published by WorldPublicOpinion – which is affiliated with the University of Maryland – finds that in only 9 of 17 countries surveyed are majorities prepared to believe that al-Qaeda was responsible for the attacks. This seems odd to me since al-Qaeda leaders have actually claimed responsibility for the attacks. But maybe that was some sort of fancy double-bluff. Or maybe the man in the video was actually Donald Rumsfeld wearing a fake beard.

At first sight, the leading rationalists seem to be the Germans: 64% of Germans think al-Qaeda did it, which is the highest percentage anywhere (its 57% in Britain.) On the other hand, 23% of Germans claim that the American government was responsible for 9/11; that makes them almost as conspiratorial as the Palestinians – 27% of whom cite the Americans. Those other firm allies of the US – Turkey (36%) and Mexico (30%) – also have significant minorities thinking the Americans attacked themselves. One other strange wrinke – 43% of Egyptians think the Israelis did it. But only 19% of Palestinians blame the Israelis. I wonder why? Could it be that the average Palestinian is more likely to have actually met an Israeli?

Finally – a rather milder but still interesting survey was published today: the annual German Marshall Fund survey of public opinion on both sides of the Atlantic – TransAtlantic Trends. A couple of things stood out for me. First, European support for the idea of American global leadership halved between 2002 and 2004 and has never recovered.  I wonder whether the (increasingly remote) prospect of an Obama presidency would change that? Second, I was rather surprised to see that more Europeans support the idea of extending security guarantees to Georgia than Americans. And third only 5% of Obama supporters and 3% of McCain supporters in the US think that it could ever be acceptable for Iran to have nuclear weapons.