In cowboy movies, there often comes a moment when somebody says “I don’t like it, it’s too quiet.” Then all hell breaks loose. If I was a member of the Obama campaign, I think I would be worrying that it’s too quiet. Of course, describing the frenzy of the last week of the campaign as “quiet” might seem a bit odd. But things still look unnaturally good for the Obama campaign. Poll after poll puts him ahead, some of them by double-digit margins. It’s been weeks since McCain led in any opinion survey. I don’t like it. It’s too good to be true.
I think my sense of foreboding on behalf of Obama feeds off two memories. First – the election four years ago. I went to bed in Britain around midnight with the BBC calling the election for Kerry. I woke up just before 6 am and turned on the radio. It was the middle of a discussion, but I could tell from the funereal tones of the BBC pundits that something had happened – Bush had won. Read more