Now that the G20 has staged its first ever summit, it is clear that the venerable old G8 has a real challenger on its hands. The G20 has a lot going for it. It includes China, India and Brazil. It has the aura and excitement of novelty. It even has another summit scheduled – in April – which will be well before the next big G8 gathering in Italy this summer.
On the other hand, the G8 still has some advantages. It is a smaller and less unwieldy group. It has a history and an institutional weight behind it. It still contains most of the world’s leading economies – and they are all democracies. Shared values, and all that.
In fact, I would even argue that the G8 was quite well-placed to see off the upstart G20 – were it not for one thing. Next year it will be presided over by that one-man wrecking crew, Silvio Berlusconi, the prime minister of Italy.
Berlusconi has a “sense of humour” that makes him a uniquely disastrous chair for international organisations. Hie presidency of the European Union in 2003 was catastrophic. He caused uproar in the European Parliament by comparing a German politician to a Nazi concentration-camp guard. In an official photo, he made the sign of the cuckold’s horns behind the head of a Spanish minister. He opened a summit designed to discuss the future of Europe by suggesting to his fellow leaders that they discuss women and football instead. Then he turned to the chancellor of Germany, Gerhard Schroder, and suggested that he should open the discussion since he had been married four times. Amazingly enough, Schroder did not see the funny side.
Now Berlusconi is warming up for his presidency of the G8 with a few more wisecracks. He has complimented Barack Obama on his tan. Twice.
After a year with Berlusconi in charge, I can confidently predict that the G8 will be a smouldering ruin.
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