The World

I am on holiday this week. This has the advantage, from my point of view, of meaning that I didn’t have to write a newspaper column on Gaza for yesterday’s FT. It is a depressing subject - to put it mildly. And it is hard to find anything to say about the Israel-Palestine conflict that is either original or constructive.

But my respite will not last. I am back at work next week. And given the likelihood that the fighting will still be going on, I may be writing about Gaza.

So while the world appeals for a ceasefire, let me appeal for some insights from blog-readers. I realise that this too might be a foolhardy endeavour since – in the past – discussions on this subject have tended to bring out the worst in everyone. If this particular thread degenerates into abuse, we will just shut it down. Anyway, here are my questions:

Israel says that it has only one goal: to shut down the missile attacks from Gaza. Is this true?

If Israel has other goals, what might they be?

Is Israel likely to achieve its goals, stated or unstated?

What unintended consequences is Israel’s attack on Gaza likely to have – particularly in the rest of the region?

What are we to make of the world’s reaction to the bombing of Gaza? It struck me as rather milder and more sympathetic than I anticipated. Is this because the major powers at the UN and the Quartet -in particular, Russia and the US – want to maintain the freedom to take similar military actions themselves, whether in Chechnya, Georgia or Pakistan? Or just that countries accept Israel’s argument that it had no option but to defend its citizens and are reluctant to say that the Israeli reaction is disproportionate?

But some people tell me that I’m wrong and that, in fact, the international calls for restraint from Israel have come much quicker than they did during the Lebanon war of 2006. One FT colleague reckons that one part of the international reaction that Israel may not have anticipated has been the panic on the part of the Arab governments that the Israelis believed would give their tacit support for an attack on Hamas – Egypt, in particular, but also the Saudis. The Egyptians are very worried that the Muslim Brotherhood, closely connected to Hamas, will get a surge of domestic support as a result of Israeli actions in Gaza.

I await your reactions with trepidation. Oh, and happy New Year.