Monthly Archives: January 2009

God it must be fun being Nouriel Roubini. Once dismissed as a bit of a crackpot by the Davos elite, Dr Doom is now the star of the show – billed as “the man who got it right”. At dinners, seminars and parties, everybody now wants to hear from the great Roubini. What is going to happen next? Nothing very good, apparently - he thinks the US banking system is basically insolvent, and the same goes for Europe.

The great thing about being Roubini is that not only is he now widely hailed as cleverer than everybody else – he is also able to imply that he is morally superior and more courageous as well. Part of the current Roubini patter is that many other analysts got it wrong because their judgement was clouded by conflicts of interest. Others, he thinks, lacked the intellectual courage to consistently stand out from the crowd. This makes him sound like an arrogant sod. Maybe so – but he is also appealingly dishevelled and quite funny.

Those are not words I would apply to Vladimir Putin. I went to an off-the-record thing with him yesterday so – apologies – I cannot reveal the not-very-startling things he said. But watching him at close quarters is rather fascinating. He is small, extremely fit-looking, with piercing blue eyes and a nice line in mirthless laughter. As a colleague put it to me later, “I wouldn’t want to be in a room with just him and a bare light-bulb.”

There has always been a certain tension between the World Economic Forum’s slogan – “Dedicated to improving the state of the world” – and the fact that many of the delegates are in Davos to network and go to parties. That is particularly awkward in a year when many of the people here have arguably done quite a lot to mess up the state of the world – by, for example, flogging toxic debt.

Davos has reacted by toning down the parties this year. The closing gala, which usually features dancing and loud music, has been re-branded as a “cultural event” – which sounds really dismal. The tasting of fine wines is not taking place. The investment banks are keeping a low profile.

I was expounding my theory that this is the party-free Davos to a colleague from The Economist, who then dismayed me by producing a vast folder of party invitations. So it appears there are lots of parties – I just haven’t been invited. My former colleague rather grandly picked out some of the B-list invitations, he wouldn’t be using, and tossed them my way – a German bank, an Indian newspaper, that kind of thing. Then he spotted a functionary from the Clinton Global Initiative, called him over and suggested that he invite the FT’s foreign-affairs columnist (me) to the CGI party in the Davos museum. The functionary looked at me for a moment and then said – “I’m afraid it’s a very restricted space.” Oh well, I’m going to a South African jazz party instead – and I won’t even have to gatecrash.

Davos is full of these minor social humiliations. I bumped into the historian Niall Ferguson today, who was a star of the most sought-after dinner this year – on what happened to the investment banks last September. But despite his elevated status, Ferguson is facing the ultimate ignominy – the forum have put him in a hotel room in Klosters, a long drive away from Davos. “I’m a gloomy Scot”, he remarked cheerfully, “I thrive on these sorts of setbacks.

I am now in Davos and preparing to play my part in “shaping the post-crisis world”, which is the official title of this year’s forum. I must say this strikes me as over-optimistic. The words “shaping” and “post-crisis” seem misplaced. (I will grudgingly accept “world”.)

But what would be a better title for this year’s Davos? “Sinking in quicksand” is closer to the spirit of the times; “Buried under an avalanche of debt” acknowledges our Alpine surroundings; “Up shit creek without a paddle” has an appealing directness and shares the same length and meter as “Shaping the post-crisis world” – so that is my favourite for the moment. But I am open to suggestions.

I wonder whether Davos itself might not become the next victim of the globalisation crisis. The streets are still full of important-looking people, falling over in the snow. But two rather crucial groups are notable by their absence: bankers and official Americans.

I once knew a senior European Union official – an Austrian – who argued to me that Greece had no place in the European Union. “Greece is not really culturally European, it’s part of the Middle East,” he insisted. “Just listen to their music.”

To this the Greeks might legitimately reply: “Plato, Aristotle and (on the musical issue), Demis Roussos.” But my Austrian friend’s views, while eccentric, touched on a real and sensitive issue within the Union: the fear that it is economically and politically divided between a northern hard core and a flaky southern fringe.

This division became temporarily less important when the EU expanded to let in the countries of the former Soviet bloc – which then became the objects of the condescension formerly reserved for the likes of Greece and Portugal. But the EU’s north-south divide is now being brought back into focus by the global economic crisis.

The remainder of the article can be read here. Please post comments below.

The BBC are under attack for refusing to broadcast a charity appeal for people made homeless in Gaza. The Observer newspaper claims that the BBC has been thrown into crisis by the decision. Jon Snow, a veteran broadcaster, calls the decision “ludicrous”. Douglas Alexander, a government minister, has called upon the BBC to re-consider. Tim Llwellyn, a former BBC correspondent, accuses his former employer of “cowardice”.

But I think the BBC are right. Broadcasting a charity appeal for Gaza at this particular moment would compromise the corporation’s impartiality. This is not a disaster caused by a tsuanami or an earthquake. It is not an Act of God. It is the product of a highly controversial war – and for the BBC to broadcast appeals for humanitarian relief for Palestinian victims would inevitably be seen as a political act.

This is not to say that I think that firepower the Israelis unleashed on Gaza was justifiable – I don’t, I think it was appalling. But the BBC’s most important job is to report on what is going on, and its most important asset is its credibility. I think BBC reporters have done a pretty good job in this latest crisis. But they are routinely attacked for “bias”, particularly in the United States and Israel. Why play into the hands of their critics? There are plenty of other avenues for charities to appeal for help for the Palestinians.

Now that Obama has his feet under (or perhaps on?) the Oval Office desk, the rest of the world naturally wants to know – what does it mean for us?

Earlier this week I did an audio roundtable for the FT on American foreign policy under Obama, with Philip Stephens and Mark Fitzpatrick. And then last night, I did an event at the LSE on the US and Europe - with Robert Kagan, Robin Niblett (the head of Chatham House) and Charles Grant, president-for-life of the Centre for European Reform.

One thing that struck me, after the two events, is that nobody seems to agree either on what Obama’s top priorities will be – or should be.

In my piece for the FT supplement on Obama, I argued that the global economic crisis will overshadow conventional foreign affairs – and that therefore international economic policy will take priority. Last night Robert Kagan argued that stopping Iran getting the bomb would, in fact, be Obama’s main pre-occupation – and that this would create scope for a rapprochement with Russia and shape policy towards the European Union. Robin Niblett argued that, when Obama visit Europe in April, it will become clear that sorting out Afghanistan and Pakistan is top of his wish list. Charles Grant thought that he should devote particular energy to the Middle East Peace process and to global governance. And in the FT roundtable, Mark Fitzpatrick surprised me by arguing that policy to Russia would take priority.

So who knows? Possibly not even Obama himself.

Well, I’m sorry but that was a bit of an anti-climax. Straining to be generous in my column this morning, I wrote that I was sure that Obama would “blow them away”. Actually, I don’t think he did.

Of course, it was impossible to live up to the wildly-inflated expectations. The “Daily Show” nicely satirised these by predicting that Obama’s oration would be so brilliant that it “makes the Gettysburg address seem like a series of simian grunts.” But the actual speech was a bit flat and predictable.

Parts of it sounded like they were written by a 27-year-old sitting in Starbucks – perhaps because they actually were written by a 27-year-old sitting in Starbucks , one Jon Favreau. Some of the lines didn’t even make sense. We will “roll back the spectre of a warming planet.” Sorry, but how do you roll back a spectre? Sounds like frustrating work. There was also a bad case of mixed metaphors – “We have tasted the bitter swill of civil war and segregation, and emerged from that dark chapter…” Mr President, you can do better than that.

As for the actual message of the speech, I think it was broadly as I predicted this morning. Sacrifice, responsibility, take our inspiration from our forefathers – and so on. On substance, I was surprised by how much sub-Bushian rhetoric there was about vanquishing terrorists – but maybe he needed that to balance the fairly clear repudiation of the excesses of the “war on terror”. I thought it was bold to say that the US is a nation of “Christians and Muslims”. There was a swift kick at greedy bankers, but that’s more or less obligatory these days. And there was a promise to work with the rest of the world.  Nothing objectionable there, but nothing too remarkable either.

Or have I completely missed the point?

Over breakfast this morning my son asked me what Obama would say in his inaugural address? I replied tetchily that I had no idea – he hasn’t given the speech yet, it’s a secret. But then I thought that’s not actually true – I think I have a pretty good idea of what he’s going to say.

I’ll be blogging about the speech after Obama has given it. But here are my predictions. This is a summary – I’m not going to attempt Obama-style rhetoric.

My fellow Americans we meet at a time of almost unprecedented crisis. Ordinary, hard-working Americans are losing their jobs, fear stalks the land. I am not going to pretend to you that the solutions for this are going to be quick and easy. The age of the quick fix is over. There will be pain. We will need patience. I will need your help.

But, my fellow Americans, let us remind ourselves that this country is always at its finest, when it is challenged – when it takes on the most daunting tasks and has the audacity not just to hope, but to believe, that they can be solved. Cue references to Pilgrim Fathers, Founding Fathers,Washington in Valley Forge, Lincoln (definitely), the greatest generation, soldiers serving valiantly overseas in Iraq and Afghanistan, Martin Luther King, JFK….Leading onto Kennedyesque riff calling for sacrifice and community.

In recent years we have focussed on instant gratification and on the me generation. Let us rediscover a sense of community and of sacrifice, of country.

America remains the land of opportunity – Who would have believed that a black man could become president. But here I am – this is a tribute to the progressive spirit and sense of justice of America.

To the rest of the world, I say that I know that many of the policies we have pursued in recent years have been bitterly divisive. Sometimes we have not lived up to the high expectations that people have of the United States. But America remains the country of the staute of Liberty and of peace and freedom.

Thank you, God bless you, and now let’s get to work.

On Tuesday Barack Obama will finally get the chance to say something memorable. This may seem like a curmudgeonly thing to say about a man who is widely hailed as one of the great orators of his age. But Mr Obama has perfected the art of sounding marvellous while saying very little.

I was in the stadium at the Democratic party convention when Mr Obama made his speech accepting the presidential nomination last August. It was spellbinding, moving, I shed a tear. But, strangely enough, I cannot remember a thing he said. It was the same when Mr Obama spoke in Berlin over the summer. Hundreds of thousands came and cheered. Few can recall a single phrase from the speech.

Obama amnesia is a fairly common condition. A quick poll of colleagues reveals that the only saying of the new president that has incontestably lodged in our collective brain is: “Yes we can.” A few others mentioned: “Change we can believe in.” There was broad agreement that Mr Obama had made an excellent and profound speech on race in America, although nobody could remember the precise details.

The remainder of the article can be read here. Please post comments below.

So – more than 1,200 deaths later – who won? Israel has announced that it has achieved its goals and called a ceasefire – conveniently enough, just two days before Obama’s inauguration. Hamas says that it has also won and has also declared a ceasefire.

Both sides can claim a victory of sorts. Israel will say that it has stopped the rockets. Hamas has survived. Israel will say that it has re-established its deterrent power. Hamas will believe that it has proved its status as the real face of Palestinian resistance.

And then there is the battle for world opinion. It was probably shrewd of Hamas to declare its own ceasefire in response to Israel’s. A decision to keep firing rockets would have fitted the Israeli narrative that Hamas cared little for innocent Palestinian lives. On the other hand, the Israelis will have been encouraged that so many European leaders – Sarkozy, Brown, Merkel, Zapatero – were prepared to pose for photos with the Israeli leadership today.

The fate of Hamas and of its armed struggle against Israel will only become clear over the next few months. Gauging the impact of the conflict on the broader region will take even longer. At the risk of sounding like a liberal hand-wringer, it seems to me that in the long run everybody loses – Palestine is even more smashed-up, embittered and dysfunctional than when the fighting began, and Israel has created more enemies and pushed the prospect of peace ever further into the distance. And over 1.200 people are dead.

The World

with Gideon Rachman

About this blog About Gideon Blog guide
Gideon Rachman and his FT colleagues debate international affairs. Read more on the authors.

Gideon became chief foreign affairs columnist for the Financial Times in July 2006. He joined the FT after a 15-year career at The Economist, which included spells as a foreign correspondent in Brussels, Washington and Bangkok. He also edited The Economist’s business and Asia sections.

His particular interests include American foreign policy, the European Union and globalisation
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