I thought Obama’s speech outlining his plan for withdrawal from Iraq was extremely well-judged. The political task was as tricky as it gets. He had to stand in front of the cream of the American military and announce that a war that he had always opposed – but that they had fought – is now coming to a close.

As usual, the president got the tone just right. He paid a genuine and sincere tribute to military heroism. He stressed what has actually been achieved in Iraq. But he did not renounce his opposition to the war – it was the implict thread running through the speech. By the end of Obama’s address, the marines were cheering him to the rafters – a promise to increase their pay might have helped improve their mood.

The substance of the speech was also impressive. There was a clear and unequivocal-sounding committment that “by August 31st 2010, our combat mission in Iraq will end.” But there was also enough wiggle-room to allow him to adjust the plan, according to circumstances.

And Obama also emphasised two crucial points. First, the Iraq withdrawal will be accompanied by a regional diplomatic offensive “and that will include Iran and Syria.” Second, he rightly stressed the fate of the millions of Iraqi refugees. In the past, the Americans have sometimes downplayed this problem – perhaps because they were embarrassed by the issue. But only when the Iraqi middle-classes can be persuaded that it is safe to return home, will the war truly be over.