As readers of this blog might have gathered, I have just been in Hungary – searching for evidence of political extremism. But perhaps I should have been looking closer to home. It is entirely possible that the far-right British National Party – which enjoys fraternal relations with Jobbik in Hungary – will gain a seat, perhaps more than one in the European Parliamentary elections on June 4th.
The BNP are not showing up well in the polls – but that is probably because people are reluctant to admit voting for them. In fact, conditions are perfect for the BNP. There is a deep recession, and now there is a sleaze and expenses scandal that is engulfing the British Parliament and discrediting mainstream politicians. UKIP – the UK Independence Party, which wants to withdraw the UK from the European Union – is another party that should benefit from the scandal. UKIP made a big breakthrough in the last Euro-elections in 2004; and the polls have been suggesting that they will do much worse this time. But the sleaze scandal looks likely to give them a big boost.
Where else might we see startling results? Geert Wilders, a Dutch politician who capitalises on anti-Muslim sentiment (slogan -”Against Eurabia and for the Netherlands”) is doing well in the polls. One conservative blog claims that he is even ahead of the main centre-right party, the Christian Democrats – which would be a sensation, if true.
And a lot of people are also expecting big things from the Trotskyites in France, with gains for the party led by Olivier Besancenot, a good-looking young postman. One poll appeared to put him at level-pegging with President Sarkozy. All in all, this might be an unusually interesting (and disturbing) European Parliamentary election.
For views and opinions on the European Union from Peter Spiegel, Joshua Chaffin, Alex Barker and Stanley Pignal, follow the 