The World

By any conventional political analysis, the governing Congress Party should have done badly in the Indian elections. The economy is suffering because of the global recession. And the Indian government has appeared powerless and clueless in the face of a spate of increasingly bold terrorist attacks. Both issues should have played into the hands of the right-wing opposition party, the BJP.

Instead Congress has done much better than expected. Manmohan Singh, the prime minister, might have been exaggerating slightly when he claimed that the election results have handed his party a “massive mandate”. But Congress has clearly out-perfomed expectations. Before the votes were counted, the conventional expectation was that Congress would get around 150 seats – instead they seem to have won over 200 seats, and should be well placed to form a reasonably stable coalition.

Early comments from the BJP suggest that their leaders are baffled by their defeat. The hardline Hindu nationalists in the party will argue that the party suffered by not pushing the issues of security and Pakistan harder. A lot of the blame is sure to attach to the BJP’s elderly leader, LK Advani, who will surely now be elbowed aside. Predictions that Mayawati, a leader of a party that appeals above all to Dalits (“untouchables”) would be the rising force in Indian politics have also been confounded. She has done surprisingly badly in her home state of Uttar Pradesh.

Instead the coming man in Indian politics now looks likely to be the latest scion of the Gandhi family – 38-year-old, Rahul. With Manmohan Singh now 76-years-old, Rahul Gandhi is clearly well-positioned to be the next party leader.