The other night I saw Henry Kissinger on television arguing that the likeliest outcome in Iran is that the regime ultimately prevails. I’m afraid it’s beginning to look that way to me as well.
Khamenei’s hardline speech today underlined that the pro ADJ forces have no intention of backing down. The demonstrations in Tehran continue and more are scheduled for the weekend. But, if the demonstrators are getting nowhere, they might gradually lose their enthusiasm. And if the size of the crowds dwindle, so will the sense of momentum behind the protests. If the regime is “sensible”, they will just try and wait the opposition out now.
More violence by the security forces and militias, however, could destabilise things further. The opposition movement already has its martyrs. Withour risking people’s lives, the opposition has to find some new way to give the movement a focus – beyond the demand for a recount or a new election. Sit-down protests, hunger strikes and occupations, a la Tiananmen might be too risky.
The other thing to watch for, in these situations, is signs of division within the ruling camp. Iran’s clerical establishment is clearly divided. But if they start to manoeuvre against each other, that could open the way to change.
In the meantime, I recommend this splendid piece by Anna Fifield in the FT, about the mood among the under-30s in Tehran,
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