The World

I have taken to more or less discounting sabre-rattling from North Korea – such as the latest batch of missile tests. But maybe that is wrong.

One of China’s leading experts on North Korea, Zhang Lianggui, professor of international strategy at the Communist Party school in Beijing, believes that “the likeliehood of a military confrontation on the Korean peninsula is very high.” The North, he writes, believes “it has overwhelming military superiority” and so would inevitably win a conflict. Prof Zhang seems to think that conflict is most likely to break out initially at sea, perhaps as a result to search ships heading for North Korea. The fight would then spread to the mainland.

So far I have only seen press reports of Prof Zhang’s views. His original article appeared in a Chinese magazine called “World Affairs”, so if anyone can direct me to the full version, I would be very grateful. Tomorrow I am going to a discussion meeting with Gray Samore, the White House’s non-proliferation man, so perhaps there will be more to report then.