The World

Given their longstanding rivalry, it is slightly surprising that Gordon Brown has openly backed Tony Blair to be the first ever President of the EU. (Technically speaking, president of the European Council, a job that will come into being, if and when the Lisbon Treaty is finally ratified later this year.)

I cannot imagine that Brown would really relish greeting Blair back to Downing Street as “president of Europe”. So why has he done it? Here are some possible motives:

1) Explanation one: He doesn’t really want Blair to have the job – and this is all a Machiavellian manoeuvre. Experience teaches that the most talked-about candidates for top European jobs rarely get them in the end. Chuck a name into the hat, and you give  time for the opposition to coalesece. When Jose Manuel Barroso won the post of president of the European Commission for the first time, his name emerged only at the very end of the process.

2) Explanation two: National ties matter more than personal antipathy. Brown may not like Blair much. But there is an ingrained national instinct to try to secure any top job for a British candidate. Or as Brown certainly wouldn’t put it – “Blair may be a bastard, but he’s our bastard.”

3) Explanation three: It’s a gambit. Brown does not really expect Blair to get the job. But sacrificing the Blair candidacy could be a useful bargaining chip to secure some other British interest - as part of those bizarre all-night haggling summits that are so much a feature of EU life.

4) Explanation four: Peter Mandelson – he was once Blair’s closest confidant. He now plays that role for Brown. As a former commissioner, he also knows Brussels. Who better to play the role of conciliator and match-maker?

Finally, one has to consider whether Blair really wants the job. The last time I discussed this with one of his aides, the response was rather sniffy. It all depended on the nature of the job, I was told. Tony wouldn’t want it, if it was just drawing up an agenda for Council meetings and arranging the place-settings. This sounded like spin to me. I’m sure if Blair was really offered the “presidency of Europe”, he would leap at the chance. But I still don’t think he’ll get it. There are too many powerful Europeans  who have never forgiven him for the Iraq war, and for failing to get Britain into the euro.