The World

On Friday, the Irish are going to vote one more time on the European Union’s benighted Lisbon Treaty. Together with a clutch of Irish and European politicians, I spoke last night at a forum on the treaty at the Historical Society at Trinity College, Dublin. The HistSoc is said to be the oldest undergraduate student society in the world, and was founded by Edmund Burke in the mid eighteenth-century.

I wonder what Burke would have made of the Lisbon Treaty? I suspect he would have disapproved of a top-down effort to re-mould national political cultures that have developed organically over centuries. On the other hand, he certainly would have disliked the resort to referenda, since he was the arch exponent of representative government.

It is widely assumed that the Irish will say Yes tomorrow. The bookies are offering 8-1 against on a No vote. I didn’t detect huge enthusiasm for Lisbon amongst the students last night – which is not a great sign for the EU, since if the Union cannot enthuse the young, the educated and the affluent, it has lost what should be its natural constituency. Most people reckoned that the Irish would vote Yes because the financial crisis has made it much more risky to pick a fight with Brussels. The recession has, indeed, driven home how much Ireland depends on the security provided by the EU.

Everybody remembers the grim little joke that was made at the beginning of the crisis – “What’s the difference between Ireland and Iceland?” Answer: One letter and six months.” In fact, as one Irish friend put it to me yesterday – “The real difference is that we are in the euro.” Ireland was protected from a debilitating run on its currency, by euro-membership. Not that the economy has emerged exactly unscathed. It is likely to shrink by 12% this year. 12%!! I pity the poor students who are having to graduate into this jobs market.

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See the FT’s Brussels blog for coverage of the Irish referendum