Monthly Archives: November 2009

By James Blitz, defence and diplomatic editor

Something remarkable has happened in the international negotiations with Iran over its nuclear programme. It is this.

For the past five years, Iran has often looked like a sharp and canny player of the diplomatic game, regularly dividing the US and Russia with its tactics, cleverly making concessions to negotiators in order to buy time, frequently rattling its opponents. Iranian diplomats have often seemed to me to be the sort of people you wouldn’t want to play chess with. They are master tacticians, who know full well how to confuse their adversaries.

By Alan Beattie, world trade editor

If anyone can explain this to me, I’d be very grateful. I have been reading everywhere that Dubai has no modern bankruptcy law, meaning you can go after your debtors with criminal sanctions if they default.

Does this mean that thanks to this week’s events a whole bunch of really quite important people in the emirate are now potentially facing chokey? Seems unlikely, but not sure how.

I have no idea, so I’m crowdsourcing the answer. Anyone?

Related reading:

Dubai in turmoil FT
What’s the big deal? Willem Buiter, FT

By Victor Mallet, Madrid bureau chief
The Philippines has had a reputation as a violent archipelago ever since Ferdinand Magellan failed to circumnavigate the globe (though some of his sailors did make it all the way round and thus immortalised his name) because he was killed on a beach on the island of Mactan near Cebu in 1521.

Yet the massacre of 46 people on Monday in the Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao in the southern Philippines plumbs new depths of violence and cruelty. It appears that gunmen loyal to a local politician attacked a convoy of his opponents and slaughtered them, as well as 12 accompanying journalists, with M-16 rifles and machetes.

Lapu-Lapu, the chieftain responsible for Magellan’s death, is hailed as an anti-colonial hero in the Philippines. But the unfortunate truth is that Magellan, who went around trying to convert the locals to Christianity, became embroiled in clan rivalries of the sort that persist to this day in Philippine politics and was the victim of his own belligerence and folly.

If it were not for decades of violence, Mindanao’s climate and scenery could make it as popular a tourist destination as Thailand, Bali or Malaysia (or the Philippine island of Boracay).

I once attended a family wedding on an idyllic island off Davao and later climbed with my wife through tropical forest to the frosty summit of Mount Apo, the dormant Mindanao volcano that is country’s highest peak. We were the only visitors at the time to this extraordinarily beautiful place. Perhaps the fact that our guide stumbled into a New People’s Army (communist) guerrilla on the path ahead of us explained the lack of fellow-tourists.

The problems facing Mindanao are reasonably well known – corruption, overpopulation, bad government and separatism fuelled by religious extremism – but the solutions are far from obvious.

On Tuesday, President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo responded to this week’s atrocity by declaring a state of emergency in parts of the island, but since neither national nor regional governments have proved capable of enforcing the law, it was probably no more than a necessary political gesture. The politics of Mindanao remain as challenging for Philippine leaders today as those of Cebu and Mactan were for Magellan nearly half a millennium ago.

By Geoff Dyer, China bureau chief

Barack Obama has already moved on to the next aspiring Asian superpower – today he meets India’s prime minister Manmohan Singh – but plenty of people are still trying absorb what really happened on his visit to China last week.

The US press has come in for some a bit of a mauling for the highly-critical way it covered the China trip – go to James Fallows at The Atlantic and Howard French at the Columbia Journalism Review. Some of this criticism is a little unfair. The Chinese government did not actually censor the “town hall” meeting in Shanghai, as some of the coverage implied, but they did go to elaborate efforts to limit its audience and to generally ensure that the young, charismatic US president had little chance to win the hearts and minds of young Chinese.

But on another point, the criticism is valid. This was never going to be a trip about quick wins and big breakthroughs, it was about Obama setting out a long-term project to engage China as a partner on some of the most important international issues.

In many cases, it could take several years to see how this plays out, but there is one exception where we might get an early test of Obama’s engagement strategy and that is Iran.

With Tehran giving plenty of indications that it will reject the current proposal over its nuclear programme, Beijing is playing coy about whether it will support tougher sanctions. But if the proposal collapses, China could be forced to make a tough choice. The Iran issue falls directly into the new fault line of Chinese foreign policy. Beijing opposes nuclear proliferation and values good relations with the US as a key priority. But worried about energy security, China is also building up extensive energy ties with Iran and the oil industry is so politically powerful that some analysts even talk of an “oil faction” in the Communist party hierarchy. Iran could provide a fascinating insight into just how much sway Obama now has with his Chinese counterpart Hu Jintao and into what China’s real foreign policy priorities are.

By James Blitz, the FT’s defence and diplomatic editor

Britain’s official  inquiry into the Iraq war begins today, amid much speculation that it will be a “whitewash”. One of the main reasons for this is that Sir John Chilcot, the inquiry chairman, is the very model of a British civil servant and a man who looks unlikely to wield the knife when it comes to an inquiry of this sort. Besides, argue the critics, the other members of the inquiry team have all been selected by Downing Street, suggesting to some that they are not truly independent and likely to pull their punches.

I’m not so sure about this. Having covered the four previous inquiries into the Iraq war, I’d beware of making any prediction on the outcome of this one. One thing I do know: the media has misjudged what the eventual outcome of all the previous Iraq inquiries would be and I expect will do the same again this time.

Take the 2003-04 Hutton inquiry into the death of weapons scientist Dr David Kelly. There was a near universal assumption in the British media when the inquiry began in the autumn of 2003 that it would destroy Tony Blair. In fact, Hutton  did the exact opposite. His inquiry almost completely exonerated Blair over the handling of the Kelly affair but instead found heavily against the BBC over aspects of its reporting -  leading to the dismissal of the two leading figures in the BBC.

By Gideon Rachman

If the answer is Herman Van Rompuy and Cathy Ashton, what the hell was the question? Europe’s choices for its new “president” and “foreign minister” are like the result of some sort of computer-dating programme that has gone badly wrong. If you fed in all the criteria for the jobs into your computer and it spat out the names – “Van Rompuy” and “Ashton”, you would ring the systems department and tell them that there had been some sort of catastrophic breakdown.

Lady Ashton is not the best candidate in Europe for the job – she is not even close to the best candidate in Britain. If the EU leaders were determined to have a Brit there were plenty of other much better qualified people: Chris Patten, Mark Malloch Brown, Paddy Ashdown, Peter Mandelson, Geoff Hoon, Chris Huhne, Kenny Dalglish. It might be objected that none of these men are women. But that need not be an inusperable problem.

I am in Dubai and when I informed a fellow Brit that Europe’s choice was Ashton, he startled me by saying “what an interesting and imaginative choice”. But it turned out that he thought I had said “Ashdown”. Lady Ashton is the classic example of somebody who is not a household name, even in her own household. She is also a vindication of the accident theory of history. She was only sent to Brussels as trade commissioner because Peter Mandelson was unexpectedly summoned back to Britain by a desperate Gordon Brown. And Brown only chose Ashton to replace Mandelson because he could not risk choosing a prominent politician and thus sparking a by-election. Talk about being in the right place at the right time. I bet she can’t believe her luck.

As for Van Rompuy, I hope he writes some good haikus while chairing the meetings. He might even have material for an absurdist play.

Related reading:

FT video: Relative unknowns take EU centre stage

Send veto, guns and money: The EU “presidency” Alan Beattie,  FT

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By Alan Beattie, the FT’s world trade editor

Look, not my specialist subject, but here’s my eurocent’s-worth on the appointment of the Baroness High Representative and the Lord High Everything Else.

(Incidentally, I’d have stuck with the classic original song for this blog post title, but if there’s one thing Brussels isn’t short of, it’s lawyers.)

The biggest problem with these posts isn’t the final personnel decision, though that’s certainly in the top two. It’s that no matter who fills them, there’s no there there. Pick any important foreign policy question of the last twenty years – Bosnia, Kosovo, Afghanistan, Iraq, Israel/Palestine – and it’s clear that what you need for influence is one or all of:

1. veto power on the UN Security Council

2. troops you can send into battle (a shooting war, not peacekeeping)

3. foreign/military aid big enough to matter that you can use for political ends

By Roula Khalaf, the FT’s Middle East editor

Ingram Pinn Illustration

It was a distinctly un-Saudi affair. The traditionally cautious kingdom, careful to the point where its diplomatic initiatives must be guaranteed to succeed before they are even launched, found itself militarily thrown into the internal conflict in neighbouring Yemen.

In the past two weeks Saudi warplanes have bombed border positions of Houthi rebels battling the Yemeni government. It marks the sixth round of on-and-off fighting that has erupted since 2004.

The Saudis have every reason to be fed up with Yemen, a lawless country of 23m people on the tip of the Arabian Peninsula beset by deep poverty and dysfunctional politics that regularly exports its troubles.

The remainder of this article can be read here. Please post comments below.

By James Blitz, defence and diplomatic editor, in Kabul

President Hamid Karzai’s inauguration speech has long been seen as a critical moment for him to spell out his determination to improve Afghan governance in his second term of office and begin the fight against corruption.

But the part of the speech that will make the headlines tonight in the US and Europe is his commitment to get the Afghan National Army and police into a position where they can manage the nation’s security alone by the middle of the next decade.

By Geoff Dyer, FT China bureau chief

Barack Obama made one last final attempt to speak directly to ordinary Chinese people at the end of his three-day visit, giving an interview in Beijing yesterday to Southern Weekend, one of China’s more outspoken newspapers.

Yet even that small gesture seems to have led to some minor skirmishes with the Chinese authorities, which managed to keep Obama on a fairly tight rein during his visit.

When the morning paper was delivered to lots of offices in central Beijing – including several buildings that house many foreign news organizations – it did not contain the section with the interview, even though the full newspaper with interview was available on many newsstands and on the internet here. After a call to the distributor, the section of Southern Weekend with the interview appeared mid-afternoon in the FT’s mail box.

The article itself raised some suspicions because it is relatively small and is almost drowned out by a large advertisement occupying more than half the page, which a source familiar with the matter said was inserted very late in the day. But there are no signs of censorship – the transcript released by the White House is identical to the published Q&A.

Obama did not say anything that would attract the censor’s ire. He called on China to “take on more responsibilities” – one of his main themes for the visit – and said that Washington would review the ban on hi-tech exports to China. And he told the interviewer he wanted to meet Chinese and Houston Rockets basketball star Yao Ming.

The World

with Gideon Rachman

About this blog About Gideon Blog guide
Gideon Rachman and his FT colleagues debate international affairs. Read more on the authors.

Gideon became chief foreign affairs columnist for the Financial Times in July 2006. He joined the FT after a 15-year career at The Economist, which included spells as a foreign correspondent in Brussels, Washington and Bangkok. He also edited The Economist’s business and Asia sections.

His particular interests include American foreign policy, the European Union and globalisation
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