The World

By Geoff Dyer, China bureau chief

A couple of years before the US housing market really collapsed, the journalist Michael Kinsley came up with the idea of a Dinner Party Index to work out when the bubble was about to pop. The theory was that if your dinner guests are already bored by anecdotes about quick profits from flipping properties, then the game will soon be up.

In China, the clever money listens less to middle-class chatter and more to the private conversations of senior officials – the Communist Party Index, if you like. Which is why the following interview on Chinese central television with He Keng, a leading member of the National People’s Congress, has gone viral on the Chinese internet over the past week.

CCTV: “Tell me, can an official like you afford property in Beijing?”

He Keng: “No, I simply can’t. What about you?”

CCTV:”At my current salary level, I don’t think I can afford it either.”

HK: “Well, if a famous host on CCTV or even a vice minister-level official like me can’t afford a decent home, it must be a huge problem for most ordinary people.”

CCTV: “Are property prices realistic at the moment?”

HK: “There are two main problems in the market right now. First, there is bubble. Then there is speculation. It means that ordinary people cannot afford their own property.”

The index’s rule is simple: when the grumbling among senior cadres reaches boiling point, expect government measures to slow down the market. Which is exactly what is beginning to happen.