The news that the Chinese may be coming on board for a new package of sanctions on Iran has been greeted as evidence of a thaw in US-Chinese relations. There is an interesting piece to this effect in today’s Guardian – although the article itself is actually rather more cautious than the headline.
I am not at all surprised that the Chinese are making some conciliatory gestures to the US, ahead of the crucial American decision about whether to designate China as a “currency manipulator” on April 15th. Stopping the US from taking that path – which could lead to trade sanctions – is now the major goal of Chinese policy to America.
So, expect plenty of warm words and conciliatory gestures from Beijing in the next couple of weeks. But, beneath the surface, I think there still are structural forces pushing the two nations towards a much more adverserial relationship.
These are: 1) Economic tensions. Tim Geithner, the US Treasury Secretary, has just publicly expressed his concern about the very high levels of US unemployment and many American economists, including in the administration, blame America’s problems in large part on “Chinese mercantalism”. If the Chinese refuse to let the RMB appreciate, or even allow only a modest appreciation, then a clash will eventually happen.
2) Climate change: Remember Copenhagen? There is no sign that the two nations are going to move any closer on this most divisive issue.
3) Iran – A new pacakge of sanctions could head this one off. But they are unlikely to be strong enough to satisfy the US or – let us not forget - to achieve their objective.
4) The mega-trend in the background is the rise of China and the relative decline of the US – and the expression of this will be the gradual challenge to American military hegemony in the Pacific. This will not be a comfortable process.
So look beyond today’s headlines. I can assure you, the Chinese do.
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