The World

I have just finished watching David Cameron’s statement on television. I was impressed by how coherent and fresh he seemed. Personally, I feel shattered – and all I did was stay up to watch the election on television. I’ve always thought that one mark of top politicians is freakish stamina; and Cameron, Clegg and Brown clearly all qualify on those grounds. I suppose, for Cameron, the prospect of becoming prime minister over the next 48 hours, must be a fairly major shot of adrenalin.

In their own ways, I think Clegg, Cameron and Brown all made dignified statements. I thought Clegg did well to disguise what must have been fairly crushing disappointment – although he now has the excitement of the coalition negotiations. Brown also did well not to sound too desperate to make a deal. But, one of the strange aspects of this election, is that – in a way – all three leaders have lost.

Brown lost 91 seats and will probably be leaving Downing Street soon. Clegg failed to make the anticipated Lib Dem breakthrough. And Cameron failed to win the proper majority that the Tories I think have long believed was their due. He will probably be prime minister – but for how long? Certainly, his chances of being an epoch-defining prime minister – a Blair or a Thatcher – have diminished dramatically. He may well end up, just as a transitional figure.

So, the politicians who came out best of this election may turn out to be the ones who didn’t lead their parties. David Miliband, the foreign secretary, is surely now the favourite to take over as leader of the Labour Party. He must quite fancy the prospect of taking on an unpopular Tory government in a fresh election, in a year’s time. That seems to me entirely possible.

I also think Boris Johnson, the popular Tory mayor of London, may turn out to be a winner. For all Cameron’s assurance today, he has led the Tories to a disappointing result. Perhaps he has been punished for waging a very cautious campaign. In a couple of years time, will the Tories be ready to take a chance on a riskier, more charismatic leader like Johnson?

As for Clegg, he has had a big disappointment. All the same, unlike Cameron and Brown, I think he comes out of the election as a much bigger figure. He has finally stepped out of the shadow of Vince Cable, the popular Treasury spokesman. Clegg now has to negotiate an incredibly tricky political situation, so he could still blow it. But, all the same, he is now a real national figure – and he certainly wasn’t that, a month ago.

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