When I was in Japan recently, critics of Yukio Hatoyama often said that the prime minister was in the habit of making nice-sounding promises that he later found it impossible to keep. Exhibit one was Hatoyama’s pledge to renegotiate the deal covering the US military bases in Okinawa and to move an important marine base off the island completely. Predictably, Hatoyama has now had to back down. But – what the hell – it helped win the election.
The whole episode got me thinking about the British election. If David Cameron becomes prime minister over the weekend, as seems increasingly likely, what pledges can we expect him to break first? Three candidates that spring to mind:
1. The tax-break for married couples: the new government is going to need every penny of tax revenue it can get.
2. Raising the inheritance tax-threshold – a totemic policy for the Tories, who think it helped to turn their fortunes around. But can you really justify a tax-break for the middle-classes and the rich, when everybody else’s taxes are going up?
3. Re-negotiating the European treaties to repatriate powers over areas like work-place legislation. The Tory rank-and-file would love this. But it would involve the expenditure of a huge amount of time and political capital, for not that much gain.
Any other candidates for a swift flip-flop?
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