The World

It is always entertaining when news from the outside world intrudes upon a seminar. I’m in Hong Kong and this afternoon was talking at an event, organised by the Asia Society, on US-Chinese relations. As we were going in, we got the news that Yukio Hatoyama had resigned as prime minister of Japan.

What’s that got to do with the relationship between Washington and Beijing? Quite a lot, as it happens. In his short period as prime minister, Hatoyama had raised the intriuging prospect that Japan might be distancing itself a little from its very tight “special relationship” with the US. He has talked of his desire for an East Asian community and a huge delegation of his party members flew over to Beijing, late last year, for a grin-and-grip with President Hu Jintao. He also promised to move the US marines’ base on Okinawa. It his failure to keep this promise that has provoked Hatoyama’s downfall.

So does the fall of Hatoyama end Japan’s “tilt towards China” – if that indeed was what was going on?

I doubt it’s that simple.

It is true that Hatoyama has found that it was impossible to gainsay the combined might of the US and Japanese security establishments – both of whom insisted that the current deal on Okinawa could not be unscrambled. It is also the case that the current alarm over North Korea has reminded Japan of the value of the American security guarantee.

But while Hatoyama was sometimes naive in his ideas – and crass in the way he expressed them – he reflected an important strand in Japanese thinking, which will not go away. The American military presence is not universally popular – which is why Hatoyama made his promise in the first place. And there are many Japanese opinion-formers – particularly in the Democratic Party, but also in the LDP – who think that Japan must adapt to the rise of China, by striving harder to build a good relationship with Beijing, even if that comes partly at the expense of traditional ties with the US.

That school of thought will not disappear with the fall of Yukio Hatoyama.

Related reading:

Timeline: Hatoyama’s tenure as Japanese PM FT

Japan’s post-Hatoyama outlook: ‘Shades of drab’ FT Alphaville

Yen Withers After Japan’s Prime Minister Resigns Business Insider