Monthly Archives: January 2011

It has taken just six weeks for the arrest of a fruit-and-vegetable seller in Tunisia to spark a chain of events that now threatens to topple the government of Egypt. Watching the revolt against autocracy spread across the Arab world is exciting, uplifting – and also deeply alarming for the world’s major powers, all of which are, in different ways, fond of the status quo.

As many depart on Saturday morning (including myself), it is time for an assessment of my Davos 2011 four day experience.

First and foremost, an extraordinary, intense and unique experience. There is even now (after 40 years) nothing like it. Forcefully and entrepreneurially driven by (Sir) Klaus Schwab, it really does bring the political, business and NGO elites together in an engaging way.

Over the last couple of days delegates have been following the unfolding events in Egypt and Yemen and speculating on the wider significance across the region. I saw one man carrying his laptop open down the snowy street watching the news. Last night at Bono’s One party an earnest young Iranian American woman told me why she was convinced this was a tipping point for the whole region.

There are times when even  “masters of the universe” are reduced to impotent silence. I spent yesterday in the bubble of the Davos convention centre, talking to political and business leaders. Almost to a man, they seemed virtually oblivious to the dramatic events unfolding in Egypt.

I know there is a tendency to hear what you want to, and I’m clearly not disinterested, but it does seem possible that inequality and dealing with the world’s wrongs may have broken through the side-events into the mainstream this afternoon.

As kick-off time approached the crowd for David Cameron was smaller than Sarkozy’s, but Our Man didn’t empty the room with his As to Qs, as Sarkozy had done. He fielded the questions himself, they weren’t planted (or didn’t seem to be), so in the second half England edged ahead. As was evident last year, with the Davos audience Cameron has a certain je ne sais quoi.

Mood: The improvement in optimism at Davos is palpable from last year, as I argued before. Interestingly, the group showing the greatest caution seems to be the CEOs of non-financial corporates. My experience over the years is that these people are a lagging indicator. What drives them is their recent performance. However, there seems to me to be a real return of confidence among bankers, who are back in force. That does make me quite nervous.

Technology generally and social media specifically are pervasive in every session. The majority of entrepreneurs I talk to here have, in the last few years, grown huge global businesses usually in complicated layered relationships with other tech providers. They like it here because all the players in this web of “coopetition” are in one place, along with clients too. But the Infosys-sponsored lunch to explore “Building Tomorrow’s Enterprise” is disappointing, despite the star-studded panel – unfocused and unsurprising. I can just glean that tomorrow’s enterprise will crowdsource its R&D, target emerging markets, and enable its staff to work on things they are passionate about.

Overall, economists seem more optimistic than ceos – probably a good sign, given the fact that boards, non-executive directors, chairmen and ceos are so cautious post-Lehman. Good the operators are keeping their powder a little dry.

Even Dr. Doom, Nouriel Roubini, was half half-full. On Wednesday morning he and Zhu Min (a special adviser to the IMF) were cautiously optimistic about 2011 prospects and US growth, although primarily concerned about inflation and consequent interest rate rises. By Wednesday afternoon, three other leading economists in a private session were even more bullish, dismissing (somewhat strangely) even troubling recent political events, as local difficulties.

The World

with Gideon Rachman

About this blog About Gideon Blog guide
Gideon Rachman and his FT colleagues debate international affairs. Read more on the authors.

Gideon became chief foreign affairs columnist for the Financial Times in July 2006. He joined the FT after a 15-year career at The Economist, which included spells as a foreign correspondent in Brussels, Washington and Bangkok. He also edited The Economist’s business and Asia sections.

His particular interests include American foreign policy, the European Union and globalisation
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