During the Blair years, whenever government ministers wanted to remind voters (or possibly just themselves) of the importance of the UK, they would say – “After all, Britain is the world’s fourth largest economy.” Since then China has shot up the rankings, forcing Britain down a place. And now I see Brazil is claiming to be the world’s fifth largest economy which, if true, would mean Britain is now sixth – or possibly seventh behind France, if you use current exchange rates. To be honest, I’m losing track.
It’s all part of the much-heralded shift of economic power from West to East and North to South. Brazil is a big-place, so once its economy began to grow rapidly and per-capita incomes rose in line with that, it was inevitable that the Brazilian economy would overtake middle-ranking European countries in size. This weekend’s news is nicely timed for the Brazilians, since it coincides with the beginning of the Rio cardinal.
Europeans, I think, have still to adjust to the fact that there is more to Brazil than football, beaches and the Amazon. This is a serious industrial economy, as well one of the world’s biggesrt commodity exporters – and, fairly soon, a major oil producer too.
I keep reading, however, that the Brazilian economy also has growing problems – high inflation, an uncompetitive currency etc. Anyway, I’m going there in a week or so (followed by Obama, the week after), so I’m looking forward to finding out more.
Brazil’s claim to be the world’s fifth largest economy comes just a couple of months after China overtook Japan. So I think the new world rankings must be: 1. USA, 2. China, 3. Japan, 4. Germany, 5. Brazil, 6. The UK or France. By 2019, however, China could be number one. And how long before India makes it into the top five?
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