The World

I was amused to see the “breaking news” ticker on the FT website announcing that Barack Obama will run for a second term. What a surprise! If he had announced that he would not seek re-election, that really would have been news.

However, there is still something surprising about the Obama announcement. Specifically, it is slightly odd that the conventional wisdom seems to be that the president is a shoo-in for re-election. It is true that unemployment is now falling, but it is still very high by usual standards. House prices in America show little sign of recovery. Real wages are stagnating. America was involved in two wars, when Obama took office and has now (half-heartedly) added a third – Libya – without being able to declare victory in either Afganistan or Iraq. There is plenty for a competent opposition to get their teeth into.

But perhaps that’s the point. A competent and focussed opposition could probably do Mr Obama some real damage. But the Republican Party is in a mess. Anyone seeking the Republican nomination would have to take account of the fact that roughly half the potential Republican primary voters seem to be insane, convinced that Obama is a foreign-born Muslim, with a secret plan to destroy America by subverting the constitution and dishing out free healthcare to the undeserving.

Mitt Romney, widely considered to be a front-runner, made his name as an ultra-rationalist management consultant. But to get the nomination he will have to cater to all the crazies, as well as disavowing his own record on healthcare reform in Massachusetts. He will also have to engage with radicals like Congresswoman Michele Bachmann, a Tea Party favourite, who is already stomping around Iowa.

The Tea Party activists seem to reserve much of their ire for people they regard as RINOs (Republicans in Name Only), who refuse to embrace the entire Tea Party agenda. So the Republican primary elections promise to be a fairly vicious spectacle – and anyone who emerges at the other end may be badly damaged or committed to an agenda that is far to the right of the average American voter.

Perhaps it is no wonder that – despite everything – Obama is hot favourite to win re-election.