The story in the FT this morning that China has been asked by Pakistan to build a naval base at its south-western port of Gwadar has raised a few eyebrows in foreign ministries in Asia, the US and Europe. If the Chinese were to accept the invitation and to go ahead, it would be a huge departure for Chinese foreign policy – their first overseas naval base. As one western official notes drily – “That’s not what you would call hiding your capabilities and biding your time.” (A reference to Deng Xiaoping’s famous advice to Chinese policymakers).
Some caution is in order, obviously. The story has come out of Pakistan, following the visit of the Pakistani prime minister to China last week. It may simply reflect Pakistani fury with the US, following the Bin Laden killing – rather than any genuine Chinese decision to go for an overseas naval base. Some western policymakers reckon that the Chinese will actually be wincing at the appearance of this story in the western press, since it will heighten the perception that China is overplaying its hand in the Pacific – an idea that has helped America to strengthen its military alliances across the region.
On the other hand, there clearly is a debate underway in China about what the country needs to do to secure its strategic interests. The Chinese are well aware that the vast majority of their oil imports passes through “choke-points” in the sea lanes of Asia – and that it relies on the US navy to keep those choke-points open. Some Chinese strategists think that that is not a safe position for their nation to be in.
Yet basing Chinese submarines or ships in Pakistan would be taken as a signal that China does indeed aspire to be a global military power. It would also deeply alarm the Indians, who are already unhappy about Chinese influence in Sri Lanka and Burma.
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