I’m told that the UN-backed special tribunal for Lebanon will, within days, hand down indictments over the 2005 killing of former premier Rafiq Hariri. Pan-Arab papers have been speculating about this. Diplomatic sources say the speculation is justified.
This is an explosive case that is being closely watched all over the region.
You might recall that the Hariri assassination, which his supporters had blamed on Syria, provoked mass protests in Lebanon and brought an end to 30 years of Syrian military control. After initial leaks suggested the involvement of Syrian officials, the investigation took another curious turn.
Last summer, Hizbollah, the Shia militant group that is backed by Syria and Iran, said it expected some of its members to be indicted. Hassan Nasrallah, the Hizbollah chief, then went on a campaign to discredit the tribunal, which he sees as an Israeli-US conspiracy, and try to prevent the indictments from coming out.
The conflict over the tribunal then brought down the government led by Hariri’s son Saad who would not agree to denounce the international court.
Now Lebanon has a new government packed with Hizbollah allies. But the party has other problems – its friends in Syria are facing a popular uprising that is threatening the regime. And the tribunal has not gone away.
No one expects any Hizbollah members to be arrested, should they be indicted, which puts Lebanon in a tricky situation vis-a-vis the UN Security Council which created the tribunal.
Most worrying in the short term is that the accusations of the killing a Sunni leader will inflame sectarian tensions in Lebanon.
Diplomats say there are two key questions that will determine the level of tension: first, whether Hizbollah will now try to play down the whole affair or take a more combative position, and second whether the indictments touch Syrian officials. Strangely, Mr Nasrallah last week said two members of the group had confessed to being CIA spies, recruited recently. Maybe anyone indicted in the Hariri case will conveniently also turn out to be a spy.
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