The World

Is it possible for politicians to be both living in the past and ahead of their time? That is how I feel about the Tory Eurosceptics, who have just given David Cameron a nasty shock, by defying the government in large numbers to demand a referendum on British membership of the European Union. The vote took place about an hour ago, and it looks as if more than 80 Tories – more than one in four of the party’s MPs – have joined the rebellion.

In some respects, these sceptics seem to me to be fighting the battles of twenty years ago. Many of them entered politics in the early 1990s when the EU’s drive for “ever closer union” -led by Jacques Delors and opposed by Margaret Thatcher – was at its height. True Thatcherites shared their heroine’s horror at the threat to British self-government posed by the expanding powers of the EU. They have vowed, ever since, to roll back the frontiers of the Union – and if that proves impossible, to get out of the EU altogether.

But the battles of Maastricht belong to a different era. A period when the EU was much more confident and European federalists were in full flow. A huge amount has happened since then. The Union has more than doubled in size, and now comprises 27 members. Above all, the EU is now struggling to avoid disintegration in the midst of the euro-crisis. I had considerable sympathy with David Cameron when he argued that, with Europe in the midst of a crisis, now was not the time to pour petrol on the flames, by contemplating British withdrawal from the Union.

On the other hand, I think the sceptics  may also be ahead of their time, in certain respects. Their demands for a fundamental re-think of the powers of the Union – and the repatriation of some powers to Britain – seemed Quixotic at a time when the EU was confidently expanding in powers and size. But, it now seems clear that, however the euro-crisis is resolved, the EU that emerges at the other side is going to be very different from the Union of a few years ago. It is perfectly sensible to suggest that, in a new situation, Britain might seek to establish a new sort of relationship with the rest of Europe.

The trouble is that now is not the moment. The euro-members are struggling to save their single currency and to avert another massive financial crisis. A huge amount will depend on whether they succeed or fail – and on what kind of euro-zone emerges in a couple of years time. There is no point trying to forge a new relationship with Europe, until we have a much clearer idea of what sort of Europe will emerge from the other side of this crisis.