Daily Archives: June 18, 2013

The impact of Iran’s election
What does the surprise victory in Iran’s presidential election of Hassan Rohani, the candidate backed by reformists, mean for the country and the region? Roula Khalaf, Middle East editor, and Najmeh Bozorgmehr in Tehran join Gideon Rachman

A Syrian flag flies over the clock town in Qusair (STR/AFP/Getty Images)

By James Blitz and Elizabeth Rigby

Senior parliamentarians and government officials in Britain believe it is highly unlikely that the UK will transfer arms to moderate Syrian rebels at some future date because they believe David Cameron has lost the political support needed to make such a move.

For many months, Britain’s prime minister has been the most forward-leaning of western leaders in arguing that the moderate rebels fighting Bashar al-Assad’s regime may soon need arms from the west, partly to tilt the battlefield in their favour.

Last week, Mr Cameron’s position received strong support from the Obama administration in the US, which finally announced that it would transfer arms to the rebels. However, any attempt by the UK to support such a move is now so firmly opposed by Mr Cameron’s own Conservative MPs that he would be unlikely to win a vote in the House of Commons, leading politicians have told the FT. 

Hassan Rohani ( ATTA KENARE/AFP/Getty Images)

Iranian voters rejected the hardline candidates in last weekend’s presidential election in favour of Hassan Rohani, a 65-year-old reformist-backed cleric.

Known as the “diplomat sheikh”, he is a former nuclear negotiator and convinced the regime to suspend uranium enrichment between 2003-2005. He has also served in Iran’s parliament and the security council.

Rohani “believes in the same pragmatic policies as Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, the former president who has been in alliance with reformist forces in recent years”, wrote Najmeh Bozorgmeh, the FT’s Tehran correspondent. “Mr Rafsanjani’s backing for his campaign, and that of reformist leaders, was crucial to his victory.”

 

John Aglionby

A demonstrator holds a Brazilian flag in front of a burning barricade during a protest in Rio de Janeiro on Monday

The protests sweeping Brazil began in São Paulo, the country’s commerical capital, last week as a demonstration by students against an increase in bus fares from R$3 to R$3.20 ($1.47) per journey. They have swelled into an outpouring of popular discontent over everything from the billions of dollars the 2014 football World Cup will cost the taxpayer to the police’s heavy-handed reaction to last week’s protests. Commentators say they are probably the country’s largest since the end of the 1964-1985 dictatorship.

Here’s a reading list to help assess whether they are likely to escalate further or fizzle. 

♦ The west’s dominance of the Middle East is coming to an end, says Gideon Rachman.
♦ Protests against student bus fares spread throughout Brazil’s major cities, with hundreds of protesters invading areas of the national Congress complex in Brasília.
♦ Hassan Rohani pledges greater transparency for the Islamic Republic’s controversial nuclear programme and says he will work to ease international sanctions.
♦ Iran’s hardliners blame each other for their election defeat, forgetting the millions who turned out in the streets for the jailed reformist Mir-Hossein Moussavi in 2009.
♦ America is the world’s number one and Germany is Europe’s, yet both seem content to punch below their weights, says Josef Joffe, editor of Die Zeit.
♦ The new governor of Luxor comes from the political arm of an Islamist group that once carried out terrorist attacks that killed dozens in the same city.
♦ Chen Guangcheng’s charge that he has been asked to leave NYU because of pressure from China will be followed closely by other universities grappling with the potential difficulties of setting up programmes and campuses in China. 

By Gideon Rachman
Should the west arm the Syrian rebels? That is the issue of the day in Washington, London and at the Group of Eight summit. But behind this debate lies a bigger question. Can western powers continue to shape the future of the Middle East as they have for the past century?