By Christian Oliver and Richard Milne
Europe’s leaders are preparing for a trade war with Russia by mapping out the battlefields on which they see the highest risk of casualties.
In data released on Friday, the European Commission identified the agricultural exporters most vulnerable to Moscow’s trade embargo on EU produce. Spanish peaches, Dutch cheeses and Polish apples find themselves squarely on the front line.
Polish fruit exports to Russia were valued at €340m last year and win the dubious honour of being the most exposed crops. The Poles have launched an impassioned public campaign to try to switch to more domestic consumption with their “Eat an apple to spite Putin” slogan.
The Netherlands (with dairy exports to Russia of €257m in 2013) and Finland (€253m) are at most risk on the milk and cheese front. Spain and Greece are vulnerable in relation to citrus, with stoned fruit such as peaches and nectarines also being described by farmers as being at crisis point in terms of storage overload and no market to go to. Read more
A Yazidi family that fled Sinjar in Iraq takes shelter in the Kurdish city of Dohuk ( SAFIN HAMED/AFP/Getty Images)
Barack Obama’s decision to move back into the maelstrom of Iraq, from which he withdrew in 2011 after solemnly pledging to extricate US forces once and for all, would clearly not have been taken lightly.
Little under a year ago, after all, the president baulked at the last fence on Syria, declining to punish the Assad regime for nerve-gassing its own people – crossing a red line he had chosen to single out as inviolable. That was the wrong decision, and it is worth a moment to remember why. Read more
Japan’s Government Investment Pension Fund, the world’s largest pool of publicly managed pension assets, is poised to make a change to its investment strategy that has equity markets salivating. Indications are that a review of its allocation guidelines, expected to be wrapped up next month, will raise the percentage of the fund’s roughly Y127tn ($1.3tn) portfolio that is dedicated to Japanese stocks, while reducing holdings of Japanese bonds.
The GPIF’s current guidelines are risk-averse by global standards, with the majority of the model portfolio dedicated to low-yielding Japanese public debt and just 12 per cent given over to domestic equities. Under the new guidelines, the equity level looks likely to rise to 20 per cent – a change that could send trillions of yen flowing into the Topix, the Nikkei and other Japanese share indices. And as of this week, key investment decisions will be made by the fund’s investment board, rather than Takahiro Mitani, its president. Read more