By Gideon Rachman
As I read the umpteenth article on the “Grexit”, a phrase from the film ‘Marathon Man’ ran around my head. In this cult-thriller, Laurence Olivier plays a war criminal turned dentist who tortures Dustin Hoffman by drilling through his dental nerves without anaesthetic. As he does so, he asks repeatedly “Is it safe?”
When Barack Obama entered office four years ago, many of the inmates of the Brookings Institution – Washington’s most venerable think-tank – moved across town to work for the new administration.
On the foreign policy side, the ex-Brookings people who joined Obama included Ivo Daalder (ambassador to Nato), Philip Gordon (assistant secretary of state for Europe), Jim Steinberg (deputy secretary of state, via the University of Texas) Jeff Bader (head of Asia at the NSC) and Jeremy Shapiro (policy planning at the State Department).
So a Brookings study of the Obama administration’s foreign policy is – to some extent – an inside job. The three Brookings-based authors of “Bending History: Barack Obama’s Foreign Policy” know their subject intimately. This has both merits and problems. On the plus side, Bending History is easily the most comprehensive and balanced study to date of Obama’s record as a foreign-policy president. On the minus side, the authors (Martin Indyk, Kenneth Lieberthal and Michael O’Hanlon) have a slight tendency to pull their punches. Still, given that so much political debate in Washington is now partisan shrieking, an excess of civility is a pardonable sin.
Ecstasy and agony: UK PM David Cameron, US President Barack Obama, German Chancellor Angela Merkel, European Commission President José Manuel Barroso and French President François Hollande watching the European Champions League final between Chelsea and Bayern Munich. Photo PA
Angela Merkel has not had a good weekend. She was close to being isolated at the Group of Eight summit. Barack Obama, François Hollande and David Cameron all ratcheted up the pressure on Germany to go for “growth” in Europe. This the Germans suspect, with some reason, is code for pouring more German money into southern Europe, tolerating higher inflation and monkeying around with European Central Bank independence.
Then Bayern Munich lost, at home, to Chelsea in the final of the Champions League. German officials had campaigned for a big-screen television to be put up at the Camp David summit, so the chancellor could watch the game. In the event the Bavarians lost, after dominating the whole match – and Ms Merkel was photographed looking like she was sucking on a lemon, while next to her Mr Cameron punched the air, and Mr Obama grinned inanely.
By Gideon Rachman
“Weak.” “Apologist.” Those two words are repeated endlessly in the Republican party’s attack on Barack Obama, as it tries to persuade voters that the US president is not worthy of another term as commander-in-chief.
This advertisement for the Prague marathon – which I photographed in the airport, this weekend – strikes me as having an unfortunate slogan. I know that Czechs are not terribly happy with the their government. But a nation that is still worried about national sovereignty, after rule from Berlin and Moscow, might be a little more careful about how it words invitations to tourists.
The defeat of Senator Richard Lugar in a Republican Party primary in Indiana is a further depressing sign of the death of centrism in the GOP. Lugar was a classic old-style, bipartisan Republican: solidly conservative in his outlook, but also willing to work across party lines on issues of national interest, such as arms control. He also has two other characteristics that are going out of fashion among Republicans: he has a deep knowledge of international affairs and he believes in international law. Neither characteristic turned out to be a plus, when running for the Republican nomination, against a Tea Party candidate.
On the other hand, one should be honest. Lugar is now in his eighties. His great period was in the 1980s and 1990s, when he played a key role in formulating US policy, as the cold war came to a climax – and then a close. As this piece by Jacob Heilbrunn makes clear, it was probably time for him to retire. But it’s a real shame that there are no new Lugars on the horizon.
The endless guessing game about whether Israel is planning to bomb Iran’s nuclear facilities in the coming months continues. Now we have two pieces of fresh evidence – but they seem to point in opposite directions. First, there is the outbreak of dissent amongst top Israeli securocrats – several of whom have gone on the record, to say that an attack on Iran would be a v.bad idea. On the other hand, Netanyahu has just formed a government of national unity - which includes three former chiefs of the defence staff.
By Gideon Rachman
In rural France on Sunday night, the newly-elected French president took to the stage and announced that he would lead the battle in Europe against austerity. On the other side of the continent, Greek voters were calling his bluff. By overwhelmingly opting for parties that want to either repudiate or renegotiate Greece’s bailout deal, they have handed François Hollande a painful dilemma. Will he stand with the Greek people against austerity? Or will he stand with the German government and the International Monetary Fund, in insisting that the Greek bailout cannot be renegotiated?
Francois Hollande’s victory speech tonight was pretty well-judged. I thought it was shrewd to hit the reconciliation button early – and to persist with his tribute to Sarkozy, even against the background of catcalls. His voice was pleasantly hoarse, after the campaign. He didn’t bang on for too long – and his promise to dedicate himself to “justice et jeunesse” (justice and the young) was alliterative and inoffensive.
Clearly, he is keen to play up his down-to-earth qualities after the bling accusations flung at Sarko. I noticed Hollande travelled through the streets of Tulle in a regular grey Renault – it didn’t even look like a Renault Espace. I guess the French will like this normal bloke business for a while, and then may get fed up with it. The French president is meant to be a big monarchical, isn’t he?
Hollande also asserted that the “eyes of Europe are on France”. Actually, some eyes might be swivelling towards Athens – where the backlash against the mainstream parties in today’s Greek election has been even more extreme than anticipated. It looks as if it might be very difficult to maintain a Greek parliamentary majority in support of the bail-out and of austerity. In which case, the market reaction tomorrow might be fearful. And President Hollande could wake up with a nasty hangover – and an instant euro-crisis to deal with.
This doubtless reflects my political prejudices, but I think Sarkozy just about edged the French presidential election debate with Francois Hollande tonight. But Sarko certainly didn’t land a knock-out blow. So, unless the polls are wildly out, his presidency is drawing to a close. The French vote on Sunday, and Sarkozy seems to be 7-8 points behind Hollande.
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