The pro-democracy protests since December’s disputed parliamentary elections are hopeful for Russia’s long-term future. Here, at last, is an economic middle class finally demanding a proper say in their country’s governance, legal protections for their families and property, and an end to pernicious corruption. Sociologists have forecast this for years – sometimes more in hope than conviction.

But in the shorter term, the shifts under way in Russia that the demonstrations highlight do not bode well for economic policy and stability. Vladimir Putin’s return as president after Sunday’s election will usher in Russia’s most uncertain period since before his first presidency in 2000.

A Russian Channel One undated television grab shows a man identified as Adam Osmayev, one of the suspected militants alleged to have conspired to kill Russian PM Vladimir Putin. Photo AFP/Getty

If you’re planning to bump off a world leader, then doing so in the middle of an election campaign is a good guarantee of maximum impact. But in Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin’s case, assassination “plots” seem to crop up so regularly around election time there is reason to be suspicious.

A pro-Putin rally. Photo AP

One round or two? For all the protests against Vladimir Putin, that has long been the only real question surrounding Russia’s presidential election, now just 10 days away. Will he get more than 50 per cent of the vote in the first round on March 4, with or without a little “massaging”, or will he be forced into a run-off with another candidate three weeks later?

The World

with Gideon Rachman

About this blog About Gideon Blog guide
Gideon Rachman and his FT colleagues debate international affairs. Read more on the authors.

Gideon became chief foreign affairs columnist for the Financial Times in July 2006. He joined the FT after a 15-year career at The Economist, which included spells as a foreign correspondent in Brussels, Washington and Bangkok. He also edited The Economist’s business and Asia sections.

His particular interests include American foreign policy, the European Union and globalisation
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