Yesterday, I moderated a panel on “The Future of Economics”. The panel included two Nobel laureates in economics – Peter Diamond of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and Joe Stiglitz of Columbia. (For pedants, this is the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel.) It also had Robert Shiller of Yale and Brian Arthur of the Santa Fe Institute. So it would be fair to say that the panel was packed.

Three of the participants are definitely of the so-called saltwater school of economics (sceptics of the efficiency of markets in all circumstances who live on the US coasts). Professor Arthur is even more heterodox than they: he is interested in the impact of technology and increasing returns. It would have been wonderful, however, also to have had a fully committed member of the “markets are always right unless governments mess them up” freshwater school, associated particularly with the University of Chicago.

It is impossible to summarise all of such a rich discussion. But here are some of the highlights.

Mood: The improvement in optimism at Davos is palpable from last year, as I argued before. Interestingly, the group showing the greatest caution seems to be the CEOs of non-financial corporates. My experience over the years is that these people are a lagging indicator. What drives them is their recent performance. However, there seems to me to be a real return of confidence among bankers, who are back in force. That does make me quite nervous.

I have, as usual, succeeded in spending a day in Davos without attending a single public session. But I have managed to speak to several interesting people about the world economy.

My sense is that optimism has returned. Even Dr Doom – Nouriel Roubini – has become notably less pessimistic. China and India are here in force and radiating the good will of those whose time has come. There seems to be little doubt that they will continue to grow very rapidly. The mood about the US has also markedly improved. Some informed observers are even talking about 3.5 per cent growth this year. Few seem to believe that the federal government will have any serious difficulty selling its debt. Even the panic over the eurozone seems to have abated. People seem to believe that a default will be avoided this year.

The World

with Gideon Rachman

About this blog About Gideon Blog guide
Gideon Rachman and his FT colleagues debate international affairs. Read more on the authors.

Gideon became chief foreign affairs columnist for the Financial Times in July 2006. He joined the FT after a 15-year career at The Economist, which included spells as a foreign correspondent in Brussels, Washington and Bangkok. He also edited The Economist’s business and Asia sections.

His particular interests include American foreign policy, the European Union and globalisation
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