Afghanistan

The announcement that General David Petraeus is going to run the CIA is interesting for lots of reasons. Some political pundits reckon that it is a clever way for President Obama to sideline a potential rivalry for the presidency. It is also a sign of the increasingly militarised nature of the CIA. By tradition the Agency is headed by a civilian. But in recent years, it has taken the lead in running the lethal drone strikes, targetting al-Qaeda and other militants based inside Pakistan. The CIA also has its own paramilitaries and special forces who were very much in evidence in the initial invasion of Afghanistan.

I think the biggest concern about Petraeus must be whether he will be capable of making impartial intelligence judgements about the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq – given that he played such a big role in designing the strategies there.

By Daniel Dombey

The heat bore down in Kandahar province and in the relative safety of two military bases the Pentagon chief saw the state of the Afghan war for himself. Dressed in chinos and a baseball cap, Robert Gates was a day tripper with a difference.

His soft, careful speaking style and the way in which he posed for photos with almost every US soldier who crossed his path gave little clue of the defence secretary’s influence in Washington and his beliefs  about the conflict itself. But he most definitely matters.

By Daniel Dombey

A ride in a C17 cargo plane from Baghdad to Kabul, consultations with Gen David Petraeus, the commander the US is pinning its hopes on in Afghanistan, and talks with Hamid Karzai the Afghan president who often exasperates his western partners – that’s what made up Robert Gates’ Thursday.

We in the press shared a good part of it. The birds’ eye view from the C17 gave a sense of the inhospitability of Afghanistan, with stunning glimpses of  mountains set in desert wilderness.

At a press session at his headquarters Camp Eggers base we saw Petraeus. He sought refuge in generalities when asked specifics about, for example, his plans for the province of Kandahar.

By Daniel Dombey

When the feel-good part of a trip is the visit to Iraq, you know you’re on an interesting journey.

After travelling to Baghdad yesterday to mark the formal end of the US’s military mission in that country, defence secretary Robert Gates came today to Afghanistan, where Washington hopes to engineer a similar handover.

Despite the political deadlock and continuing instability in Iraq, many US officials would give their eye teeth to have a similar set-up in Afghanistan.

FT column: Somali lessons for Afghanistan

My latest column is on Afghanistan

Whenever western leaders ask themselves the question, why are we in Afghanistan, they come up with essentially the same reply – “To prevent Afghanistan becoming a failed state and a haven for terrorists.” Until Afghanistan is stable, so the argument goes, we cannot risk withdrawal.

By Daniel Dombey, US Diplomatic Correspondent

Fly into Islamabad. Offer military aid. Deny conspiracy theories. Suggest that it wouldn’t be too bad an idea for Pakistan to go after Islamist extremists more vigorously.

That, in a nutshell, has been Robert Gates’ job over the last day – and it’s a difficult task to carry out.
 
Mr Gates’ 24 years of travelling to Pakistan have made him all too aware that US-Pakistani cooperation – which Washington sees as central to its own national security – is afflicted by what officials call “a trust deficit”.
 
Opinion polls make clear the US’s spectacular unpopularity among the public at large; Pakistani leaders well remember Washington’s decision to walk away from the region after the Soviets’ pullout from Afghanistan in 1989.
 
So it’s not surprising that in a television interview broadcast from the US’s fortress embassy in Islamabad, Mr Gates sought to shoot down conspiracy theories rife in Pakistan – denying, for example, that the US wants to take over Pakistan’s nuclear weapons or its territory.

It is a little more alarming, however, that Mr Gates also felt the need to make such points in meetings with Pakistan’s leadership during the day. If the country’s top civilians or generals are tempted by such theories the US still has a long way to win Islamabad over.
 
He also went the extra mile to set out his “admiration” for the Pakistani’s army’s efforts to take on Islamist militants in the Swat and South Waziristan regions over the past year.
 
The US would clearly like Islamabad to do more, particularly in North Waziristan, which Washington says has hosted one of Nato’s main foes in Afghanistan. But Mr Gates tactfully acknowledged that “the Pakistani army, the Pakistani government, being sovereign, will make their own decisions about the pacing and the timing of what they do,” adding:  “In that context we are prepared to help them with whatever help they want that will make them more effective.” (For those who aren’t clear about what that last comment meant, it’s probably a reference to weapons.)
 
The US already provides Pakistan with $3bn in military aid a year. But it knows it doesn’t have as many friends as it would like in the country’s military – not least because Washington cut off military ties in the 1990s in light of its worries about Pakistan’s nuclear programme. General Ashfaq Pervez Kiyani, who trained at Fort Leavenworth, may be one of the last Pakistani army chiefs for a while who was educated in the US.

So if it’s to overcome the trust deficit, Washington – and Mr Gates – hardly has very much time. Expect a good few more flying visits to Pakistan.

By Daniel Dombey, US Diplomatic Correspondent

The man responsible for America’s military has come to the country at the heart of the US fight against militant Islamists – and yet he can’t talk about a key part of that struggle.

Robert Gates, US defence secretary, has followed up on his trip to India by flying to Pakistan – his first visit to the country for almost three years. The last time he came calling, in February 2007, was only a couple of months after he had been installed as Secretary of Defence by George W Bush.

The Obama administration has been more forthright than Bush’s team was about how Pakistan – a nuclear armed state of some 166m – is more important for US national security than is Afghanistan, the country in which the US will soon have 100,000 troops.

But what is lost in the talk of grand strategy is the fact that the US’s experience in the Af-Pak region consists of two wars. One, in Afghanistan, revolves around improvised explosive devices, the crude bombs that account for most of the Nato casualties at the hands of insurgents. The other, in Pakistan, is largely about the drone strikes that are the US’s weapon of choice against al-Qaeda and Taliban leaders.

How long those two conflicts will last may depend on large part on how long the US is willing to accept significant numbers of IED casualties, and how long Pakistan will tolerate the drone strikes on its terrain.

The problem is that as a CIA operation, using bases on Pakistani territory, with the reluctant and off-the-record approval of Pakistani authorities, the drone strikes are not anything that US officials like Gates can talk about in public.

That’s all the more important, since the drone strikes are deeply unpopular in Pakistan, and are blamed for many civilan casualties (the US often disputes just how many). The issue has grown in intensity after a Jordanian double agent recently killed seven CIA operatives in  Afghanistan, since when the tempo of the drone strikes has been upped still further.

So when asked about the drone strikes on the flight over Gates declined to talk about such operations. Instead he highlighted the US desire to avoid civilian casualties and Washington’s readiness to provide Pakistan with surveillance vehicles, adding a bland and not hugely meaningful: “We are very mindful of Pakistan’s sovereignty.”

It’s far from clear how effective such bromides will be in diluting opposition to the strikes. After all, all such attacks depend on a green light from Islamabad. Almost any country would be wary of allowing another power to carry out systematic, repeated attacks on its own territory – and that’s even more the case in Pakistan, where anti-American sentiment runs strong and the government is weak.

One gets the sense that the status quo can’t last for all that long.

But  if you are looking for a public defence of Washington’s most controversial actions in its war against al-Qaeda – its most direct strikes against  Islamist groups – sorry, the US can’t help.

By Daniel Dombey, US Diplomatic Correspondent

A large part of covering modern ministerial visits consists of spending long hours in confined spaces in the middle of very big countries. This blog has been written in the darkened interior of the last car in Defence Secretary Robert Gates’ convoy, parked in the midst of Sir Edwin Lutyens spectacular government complex in Delhi.  Monkeys clamber on the rooftops of the buildings here and pigeons fly through the corridors. It is a very grand place – and it is unlike almost anywhere else the US has to deal with.

That’s partly the lesson of this trip – the US is keen for its ties with India to develop further and faster than Delhi is comfortable with. Though the relationship has come on in leaps and bounds, India has yet to sign three technological agreements that have been on the table since as far back as at least 2002. The deals would enable more cooperation between the two countries’ militaries and – hardly the least important detail – would also make US military hardware more attractive to Delhi by bundling it with fancier software. That way, aircraft sold by the US to India could include state of the art navigation and targeting systems.
But India, which is well aware of its status as a rising great power, is reluctant to do anything that would group it together with  mere US allies

The oddest thing about 2009 was how normal it was. At the beginning of the year, the global economic crisis was still causing panic in prime ministers’ offices and presidential palaces across the world. Many politicians were looking anxiously back to the 1930s.

Those fears of a return to a world of soup kitchens and fascist marches turned out to be overdone. The German economy contracted by more than 5 per cent in the year to September. But in that month, the Germans still re-elected Angela Merkel – the very epitome of stolid, centrist good sense. The Japanese elections, a month earlier, were more dramatic – marking the end of the Liberal Democratic party’s almost uninterrupted hegemony over postwar politics. But it is still too early to tell whether Japan has really changed as a country.

For that reason, neither the Japanese nor the German elections make my annual list of the five most important events of the year. Instead, my top five for 2009 are as follows.


The remainder of this article can be read here. Please post comments below.

By James Blitz, defence and diplomatic editor, in Kabul

President Hamid Karzai’s inauguration speech has long been seen as a critical moment for him to spell out his determination to improve Afghan governance in his second term of office and begin the fight against corruption.

But the part of the speech that will make the headlines tonight in the US and Europe is his commitment to get the Afghan National Army and police into a position where they can manage the nation’s security alone by the middle of the next decade.

The World

with Gideon Rachman

About this blog About Gideon Blog guide
Gideon Rachman and his FT colleagues debate international affairs. Read more on the authors.

Gideon became chief foreign affairs columnist for the Financial Times in July 2006. He joined the FT after a 15-year career at The Economist, which included spells as a foreign correspondent in Brussels, Washington and Bangkok. He also edited The Economist’s business and Asia sections.

His particular interests include American foreign policy, the European Union and globalisation
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