If you want to understand 19th-century Russia would you do better to read a history book, or to read War and Peace? The history would give you the facts. But the Tolstoy might provide a more profound understanding.
I don’t often get the impression that I am hallucinating. But I do distinctly remember wondering whether my eyes were playing tricks on me, when I went for a late night stroll in Shanghai, eighteen months ago, and came across the Barbie store.
There was so much to take in. It was five-stories high. It was decked out in Barbie’s trademark garish pink. And it was open – at 11pm at night. I read in today’s FT that the flagship Barbie store in Shanghai is now closing. I wasn’t the victim of some mind-altering drug, after all – but I can’t vouch for the person who thought of opening the store in the first place.
Last night I went to a dinner on geo-politics - and witnessed a strange and interesting conversation on the possibility of war between America and China. I was invited to start the discussion, by describing some of the themes of my book, Zero-Sum Future, which comes out in the US next week. (It’s been out a couple of months in the UK, already.) There were senior members of the American and Chinese foreign-policy establishments on hand to comment.
President Obama sounded more like salesman-in-chief than commander-in-chief when he told Hu Jintao, his Chinese opposite number – “We want to sell you planes, we want to sell you cars, we want to sell you software.” And I’m sure the Americans could probably do the Chinese president a good deal on central heating, if he was interested.
Shortly before President Barack Obama visited Beijing for the first time, he set out US policy to China: “We welcome China’s efforts to play a greater role on the world stage,” he declared. “Power does not need to be a zero-sum game and nations need not fear the success of each other.”
With Hu Jintao about to arrive in the US, it seems like a good time to revisit this fascinating question. Americans seem rather confused about this topic. Some opinion polls suggest that most Americans believe that China is already the world’s largest economy. On the other hand some participants in this NPR radio discussion I took part in over the weekend, seemed to believe that the great ”sorpasso” is still many years away – thirty or forty years, at least. So what is going on?
By Daniel Dombey, US Diplomatic Corresponden
What exactly is going on with China and the US? And more specifically what is Robert Gates trying to do? Just a week before Chinese president Hu Jintao visits the White House the Pentagon chief is in
Beijing on a trip intended to bolster relations between the two sides.
But it’s not exactly following a touchy-feely script, judging by the events that bookended it. On the way over Gates signalled the US would be ramping up investment in equipment to fight off China. And after having held meetings with China’s top leadership – including Hu himself and heir apparent Xi Jinping, Gates expressed concerns about the Chinese military acting independently of the country’s civilian
(that is, communist party) leadership.
By Daniel Dombey, US Diplomatic Correspondent
Few things on this planet are as important as US-Chinese relations, since between them the two countries do so much to shape world events. So Robert Gates’ extended trip to Beijing, dealing with some of the most difficult aspects of that relationship – their burgeoning military rivalry and their fledgling cooperation on security issues – is a pretty significant event.
The economic crisis has given new life to an old debate.
I have written a cover story for Foreign Policy magazine in the US on the great decline debate – and I take the gloomy view. Sorry about that. If you are wondering why I’m writing for people other than the FT, it’s a special dispensation to do with the publication of my book. It comes out in the US on February 1st.
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