Davos

Technology generally and social media specifically are pervasive in every session. The majority of entrepreneurs I talk to here have, in the last few years, grown huge global businesses usually in complicated layered relationships with other tech providers. They like it here because all the players in this web of “coopetition” are in one place, along with clients too. But the Infosys-sponsored lunch to explore “Building Tomorrow’s Enterprise” is disappointing, despite the star-studded panel – unfocused and unsurprising. I can just glean that tomorrow’s enterprise will crowdsource its R&D, target emerging markets, and enable its staff to work on things they are passionate about.

Overall, economists seem more optimistic than ceos – probably a good sign, given the fact that boards, non-executive directors, chairmen and ceos are so cautious post-Lehman. Good the operators are keeping their powder a little dry.

Even Dr. Doom, Nouriel Roubini, was half half-full. On Wednesday morning he and Zhu Min (a special adviser to the IMF) were cautiously optimistic about 2011 prospects and US growth, although primarily concerned about inflation and consequent interest rate rises. By Wednesday afternoon, three other leading economists in a private session were even more bullish, dismissing (somewhat strangely) even troubling recent political events, as local difficulties.

So, what are people worrying about about? Mainly how to get to their next meeting in time! A little ironic in a place that is meant to be about shared reflection and thought-leadership. Missing the big picture while scurrying after the immediate opportunity could even be a metaphor for “the state of the world” that it is WEF’s mission to improve.

Medvedev was the star turn on Wednesday, though he shared the limelight with his iPad. Today it is Sarkozy, who dressed down subtly in a pair of grey slacks and a blue jacket. After 24 hours we are still in search of the New Reality – the Conference mission this year – but when we find it, it will certainly be dressed in snappy business casual.

Last night I went to a dinner on geo-politics - and witnessed a strange and interesting conversation on the possibility of war between America and China. I was invited to start the discussion, by describing some of the themes of my book, Zero-Sum Future, which comes out in the US next week. (It’s been out a couple of months in the UK, already.) There were senior members of the American and Chinese foreign-policy establishments on hand to comment.

I have, as usual, succeeded in spending a day in Davos without attending a single public session. But I have managed to speak to several interesting people about the world economy.

My sense is that optimism has returned. Even Dr Doom – Nouriel Roubini – has become notably less pessimistic. China and India are here in force and radiating the good will of those whose time has come. There seems to be little doubt that they will continue to grow very rapidly. The mood about the US has also markedly improved. Some informed observers are even talking about 3.5 per cent growth this year. Few seem to believe that the federal government will have any serious difficulty selling its debt. Even the panic over the eurozone seems to have abated. People seem to believe that a default will be avoided this year.

While China has been dominating the news in the run up to this week’s event in Davos, it’s India that has been dominating my inbox. I, and presumably all the other delegates, have been invited to what must add up to a full schedule of colourful Indian networking events promoting India’s prowess in everything from cars to technology to music. India obviously sees an opportunity to influence “decision makers”. Meanwhile, I hope there will be a chance to influence India’s elite to do more to stop the needless deaths of 1.7 million children in India every year – the highest in any country.

The World Economic Forum enjoys the conceit that, for a week, the world centres around Davos. But, this year, this is obviously not true. There are big events elsewhere in the world and the Davosites, like everybody else, are watching them on TV: terrorism in Moscow, the state-of-the-union in Washington and what looks like an incipient revolution in Egypt.

Events on the streets of Cairo meant that this afternoon’s session on security issues was packed out. That is because one of the participants was Amre Moussa, the secretary-general of the Arab League and a former foreign minister of Egypt. The bad news is that I am not allowed to report what Moussa said. The good news is that he actually said nothing worth reporting, so it’s no great loss. If this is the calibre of political leadership on offer, I can see why Egypt is in trouble.

One rhetorical trope which never fails to irritate is the trite observation that “now is not the time for complacency”. Nods all round the room. I have often thought it would be provocative, for once, to hear a speaker say that today, indeed, is the perfect moment to be complacent, to relax one’s guard, and to engage in a comforting bout of self-congratulation.

I never thought that happy moment would arrive, but it did today in a session on risk, where three Anglo-American CEOs told us that their corporations had risk management all figured out. Capital is perfectly allocated to risk, and they were confident that systemic crises could be prevented in the future. So governments and regulators have to “move on” (a favourite Blairite phrase). In other words, all these dangerous ideas about resolution regimes or, horror of horrors, breaking up huge banks should be abandoned. Big banks can attract better risk managers. Small ones won’t have good chief risk officers.

This year’s Davos started with the wrong sort of bang, as the Domodedovo bomb kept President Medvedev at home and deprived the conference of its first star turn. With the continuing uncertainty about who will stand for the presidency in Moscow next year, there was unusual interest in how he performed. We shall see if he is able to reschedule later in the week. That would create a logistical challenge for Klaus Schwab and his team.

And the mood of the plucky British team on their way up the mountain was severely dented by the dismal output figures for the last quarter of 2010. There were special features, of course, as George Osborne has  said to anyone with ears to hear, but it is somehow harder to persuade people in a ski resort which functions happily in all manner of climatic conditions that a couple of snow storms and a cold snap threw a 60 m people economy so far off track. Cameron and Osborne will face some sceptical audiences when they appear. The US administration, which cannot easily present a plausible fiscal plan itself, may be privately pleased that Britain’s austerity experiment, as they like to call it, is looking a bit iffy.

The World

with Gideon Rachman

About this blog About Gideon Blog guide
Gideon Rachman and his FT colleagues debate international affairs. Read more on the authors.

Gideon became chief foreign affairs columnist for the Financial Times in July 2006. He joined the FT after a 15-year career at The Economist, which included spells as a foreign correspondent in Brussels, Washington and Bangkok. He also edited The Economist’s business and Asia sections.

His particular interests include American foreign policy, the European Union and globalisation
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